Sam Boughedda

Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan stated that Amazon (NASDAQ: ) was a new competitor to the retail sector. He said “Team Retail” had expected that online penetration would fall in 2021, following the well-aboved trend expansion of the pandemic.

Horvers said in a note to investors that US e-commerce gains moderated in 2021, but they “continue to project re-acceleration in 2H22 on more favorable comps & as AMZN & other retailers gain share in underpenetrated categories.”

Horvers wrote that e-commerce would reach 30%+ adjusted penetration by 2026, with 200 bps per year expansion and a 40%+ increase over the course of time. According to Horvers, E-commerce sales rose 15% in 2021. This was in keeping with its pre-COVID middle-teens trends, but it fell from its 20%+ COVID acceleration of 2020. It also under-grew total retail sales more than 300bps, which is a significant improvement on its 10–12-pt performance.

JPMorgan believes that online sales will continue outpacing retail sales. However, this margin is smaller and JPMorgan anticipates “online share to increase.”