Russia’s Ukraine invasion has unintended consequences for Putin
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In the background of an Estonian protest in support of Ukraine at Freedom Square, Tallinn (February 26, 2022), following Russia’s invasion, is a banner reading “Slava Ukraini”. While many people are sympathetic to Ukraine’s cause, Russia is paying more.
Raigo Pajula | Afp | Getty Images
It was believed that Russia expected an easy win over Ukraine when it invaded the country.
Russia’s “special military operation,” however, has so far failed to deliver. Its troops have been fighting mostly to the north, east, and south of Ukraine, and they have discovered that the country is much better organized and more well-equipped than expected.
Russian forces have only captured Kherson but the situation looks fragile. Ukrainian forces are now launching an offensive to take back the south port. Similar actions have also been observed in Ukraine. Officials state that Russia is mounting an increase number of counterattacks.
Moscow, less than a month into war in Ukraine is now facing unexpected consequences. They are suffering from high civilian casualties and financial ruin for many years.
These are just five:
1) Russian casualties high
Russia has not released statistics regarding its losses. But a Russian defense ministry official claimed that 1351 Russian soldiers have died so far in the conflict and that 38225 had been injured.
The Ukrainian authorities say that over 15,000 Russian soldiers died in conflict. A senior NATO official, however, said that the death toll could be as high as 15,000 or 15,000.
Ukrainian soldiers rescue equipment from the corpse of a Russian soldier killed in action by Ukrainian forces. The incident occurred near Sytnyaky, Ukraine on March 3, 2022.
Marcus Yam | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images
If accurate, those numbers would be a heavy death toll for Russia — comparable to the almost 15,000 Soviet soldiers who died during the 10-year war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. This incursion remains unpopular in Russia today, as it cost Russia so little and gained Russia nothing.
The United Nations human rights office (OHCHR), Tuesday said that 1,151 civilians were killed by Russian forces. This includes 54 children and more than 1,800 civilians injured. The actual death toll is likely much higher, according to the UN’s human rights office (OHCHR).
“The majority of civilian casualties reported were caused by explosive weapons that have a large impact area. This includes shelling from heavy guns and multiple rocket launch systems as well missile and air strikes.” the OHCHR said.
2) Ukrainians loathe Russia
The war could have a number of consequences, including the fact that there will be more Ukrainians harboring animosity towards Russia. Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure — including a children’s hospital and maternity ward, as well as a theater where families were seeking shelter — are widely seen as war crimes by the international community. Russia says it hasn’t targeted civilians.
The mood was summed up by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President, in March. He stated that “we will never forgive”, “we will forget”, and “we will punish anyone who has committed atrocities during this war against our land.” Before adding, “There will be no quiet spot on the Earth but the grave.”
This still is from a handout image obtained by Reuters.
via Reuters| via Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin has extolled Russia’s cultural, linguistic, and historical ties with Ukraine. But he is driving what appears to be an intractable wedge between these two nations.
Kira Rudik (a member of Ukraine’s Parliament) tweeted Monday that Ukrainian homes being set on fire as a result Russian aggressions was “just making us feel more anger”, and another called for $450 billion of reparations from Russia to aid the rebuilding of Ukraine.
Putin has goaded Ukrainians in recent years, reiterating his belief that Ukraine is not “even a state” and that it’s a historical part — and indeed a creation — of Russia, a claim he’s made again in recent weeks.
A mother holds her baby next to the bridge that was destroyed during an evacuation from Irpin outside Kyiv (Ukraine), on March 28, 2022.
Oleksandr Ratushniak | Reuters
On the contrary, many Ukrainians have spent the past two decades trying and assert their independence from Russia. They rejected pro-Russian politicians and politics and started not one, but two, dramatic uprisings. In the latter — the Euromaidan revolution — thousands of Ukrainians braved police brutality and violent repression to call for political change, and for Ukraine to join the EU.
This ambition has only deepened under President Zelenskyy, who has asked the EU to fast-track Ukraine’s accession to the bloc, while conceding that Ukraine might never join NATO — one of Moscow’s intended consequences — as it looks to compromise in order to find a peace deal with Russia.
3) Economic disaster
When Russia annexed Crimea, Ukraine in 2014, the international community was accused as slow and ineffective. When Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, the international community was accused of being slow and ineffective. This time around, the West imposed wide-ranging sanctions against key Russian businesses, individuals, and sectors.
Russia’s economy will likely fall into deep recession in the coming year. Institute of International Finance forecasts that Russia’s economic growth will shrink as high as 15% by 2022 due to the war. In a last week note, the Institute of International Finance predicted that Russia’s economy would contract by 3% in 2023.
Analysts from TS Lombard believe that Russia will suffer a severe drop in living standards due to high inflation and recession. Inflation is projected to rise at an annualized rate of 14.5% in the last week of March. This figure was reported Monday by Christopher Granville, Madina Khrustaleva in a note.
They suggested that this could have significant medium- and long-term effects, particularly on a political level. Putin’s popularity will likely be affected. However, they did note that Russia could mitigate the effects of economic sanctions by increasing its oil exports from China and India. Russia’s oil-producing allies in OPEC are also standing by it.
4) Europe is dropping Russian energy
This war also has accelerated Europe’s shift away from Russian oil imports, which is putting a significant dent on the Russian revenues from its energy exports.
It has also made the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline — designed to bring more Russian gas to Europe (and which the United States, Poland and Ukraine warned would increase the region’s energy insecurity) — redundant, perhaps for good.
Landfall facilities were opened by the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Lubmin, Germany on March 7, 2021. Europe’s move away from Russian oil imports has been accelerated and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, valued at $11 million, may have become obsolete.
Hannibal Hanschke | Reuters
EU imports around 45% from Russia each year. In 2021 the EU pledged to cut its Russian gas purchase by two-thirds. Additionally, the European Commission intends to end its Russian purchases before 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. will be supplying its own natural gas to the region. This transition will be difficult, though.
We know Europe became far too dependent upon Russia, and we are very sorry for that. [for energy]Germany in particular, however, changing energy sources takes time. It’s not something that you do over night,” Fred Kempe of the Atlantic Council said to CNBC. He said, “An Energy Transition is a transition” and that oil and gas are needed during this time.
5) Russia unites the West
President Vladimir PutinIn his 22 years of power, he has tried to undermine and weaken West.
Protective suits worn by military personnel are used to remove police cars and other vehicles from public parking lots as part of their ongoing investigation into the poisoning that occurred on March 11th, 2018 in Salisbury.
Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images
Experts believe Putin expected that his invasion of Ukraine would have a disunifying impact on the West. This could be because countries are unable to reach an agreement on sanctions or send arms to Ukraine. But the contrary has been true.
“The West’s unprecedented reaction was extraordinary. It is beyond anyone could have anticipated — united and much more than anyone in Russia was preparing or prepared for,” Anton Barbashin, a political analyst and editorial director of the journal Riddle Russia, told CNBC.
“Ultimately, it’s the ultimate economic warfare which will ruin Russia’s economy as well as our knowledge.” [it]. Will those sanctions deter Putin’s war in Ukraine – no, but it will certainly considerably limit the time we have with Putin’s Russia as it is today,” Barbashin added.
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