Arshad Mohammed and John Irish by Parisa Hafezi

WASHINGTON/PARIS/DUBAI (Reuters) – Western officials have largely lost hope the Iran nuclear deal can be resurrected, sources familiar with the matter said, forcing them to weigh how to limit Iran’s atomic program even as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has divided the big powers.

They are not abandoning the agreement under which Iran restricted its nuclear programme in exchange for economic sanctions relief, but there is growing concern that it might be irreparable.

They are not pulling out the IVs from patients’ arms… however, I feel that they have little hope of a positive outcome,” stated one source. He spoke anonymously due to sensitive issues.

Four Western diplomats shared the opinion that the Iran-US deal, which was struck in 2015 with Britain, France and Germany but abandoned by President Donald Trump in 2018, was waning.

When the European Union (which coordinates the negotiations) invited ministers from Vienna, they seemed to be on the verge of reviving the pact. However, talks fell apart over Russian last-minute demands. Washington may also want to take the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of (IRGC), from its Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO).

Washington claims that the IRGC is responsible for elite intelligence and armed forces.

Many U.S. legislators oppose Tehran’s request to be removed from the list. They see it as terrorist organization despite Iranian claims.

Although the Russian demands seem to have been satisfied, the IRGC classification has not. The impending November 8 U.S. Mid-term Elections will make it difficult for President Joe Biden of the United States to ignore domestic resistance and remove the IRGC.

NONE WANTS TO SAY “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH”

Biden’s aides stated they do not plan to eliminate the IRGC but are open to considering it. According to them, if Tehran desires Washington to step in beyond strict renewal of the accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is the best way to address U.S. concerns.

According to a top U.S. official, “If they refuse to accept extraneous requests, insist on lifting FTO and ignore our concerns that extend beyond JCPOA, then yes, we are going to reach an impasse that is unlikely to be overthrown.”

“Is it dead? The official stated that we do not know the answer and, frankly speaking, don’t think Iran does.

Iran has so far refused to compromise on FTO elimination

An Iranian security official stated that “That is our red line and we won’t cave in on it.”

Both sides are unwilling to acknowledge that nearly a full year of indirect negotiations may have ended, according to several sources. Washington hopes Iran will drop the IRGC request, while Iran is confident it can revive and renew the agreement whenever it wishes.

The result is that events could drift with the attention of the international community on Russia’s invasion in Ukraine and its resulting spike in oil prices, which allowed Iran to make more money from illicit oil exports, which evade U.S. sanctions.

A diplomat from the West said, “I don’t believe anybody wants to tell enough is enough.” Do you think this can go on for indefinitely without anyone indicating that it’s done? … Probably.”

This would allow Iran to expand its nuclear program. Trump had already abandoned the agreement. Washington estimates that Iran will be able to obtain fissile material in the next few weeks for one nuke weapon.

Iran long has rejected the idea of nuclear weapons.

A REASONABLE ‘PLAN B” IS NOT AVAILABLE

There are not many good options, despite talk of an American “Plan B” for Iran’s nuke program in the event that the agreement is not renewed.

The main tool big powers have to reduce Iran’s oil imports is to obstruct any U.S. military or Israeli action against Iranian nuclear sites.

Despite Washington winning the support of Beijing and Moscow to reduce Iranian exports through U.S. sanctions during the years prior to the 2015 agreement, the consensus between the major powers is not there.

Russia invaded Ukraine in spite of warnings from the U.S., European and other countries. This is not a sign that Moscow has given its assent.

China is the largest buyer of illegal Iranian oil. Sources said that it will not be easy to get China to reduce its purchases when supplies are limited and Beijing receives discounted prices from Tehran.

China’s foreign ministry declined to discuss Iran’s oil purchase in violation U.S. sanctions. It reiterated Beijing’s opposition U.S. Extraterritorial Sanctions and asked the United States for an end to its unilateral sanctions.

Iranian oil exports rose to an average 870,000 barrels/day in the first quarter according to Kpler. This is up from the fourth quarter’s 668,000 bpd.

In effect, the United States would have to coordinate two efforts to reduce Russia’s oil exports, and one to decrease Iran’s.

“Is it possible to mobilize both sanctions coalitions simultaneously?” It’s tricky!” Another source said that Iran now sells about half of its oil if the U.S. sanctions had been lifted, but is still making the same amount due to the rise in the price of oil.

“Why should Tehran make such a difficult concession, when they are already receiving that oil benefit?” He said.