By Martin Petty

(Reuters) – A race between Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Leni Roberto has been announced ahead of Monday’s elections. Marcos Jr is the son of a dictator who ruled for 20 years before being overthrown in a revolt that took place in 1986.

Let’s take a closer look at the key issues.

HOW DOES EACH CANDIDATE ROLE?

Marcos may not rule as authoritarian like his father. But, it is likely that he will exercise strongman-style leadership. Rodrigo Duterte was a strongman-style leader, and this approach became popular.

Marcos, if elected, would probably use the influence of his family to consolidate power via transfers, appointments, and connections in key bodies. He could also replace potential barriers with his vast political network. Robredo could be more favorable to him in congress and the senate.

Robredo’s victory will see Robredo adopt a liberal approach, with a greater focus on education and healthcare. It would also strengthen institutions, oversight, and boost market competition. Her pledge to increase social welfare such as family support and unemployment benefits, is clear.

A Robredo presidency, however, would be subject to turbulence. Her vice presidency challenge to Duterte has made her a target of hatred and disinformation.

WHAT IS THE ECONOMY?

Both the candidates have pledged to prioritise recovery from pandemics and may target reforms like redecorating and investment reforms.

Robredo pledged to boost investment in climate adaptation and level the playing fields for businesses. He also promised to promote public-private partnership.

Marcos is not open to discussing policy. He has avoided presidential debates or tricky interviews with the media, and instead focused his campaign on a clear but vague message of unity. Duterte’s continuity is to be expected on all major infrastructure projects.

However, some economic risk advisors have pointed out that there is a greater chance for corruption and nepotism in a Marcos presidency. They also noted the potential for score-settling or retaliation against companies linked to family members.

HOW WOULD FOREIGN POLICY LOOKS LIKE?

Because the Philippines has remained loyal to Washington throughout Duterte’s decades of hostile public relations, it is unlikely that either candidate will threaten its long-standing relationship with former colonial power.

For the Philippines’ military and internal security, the defense alliance is critical. Presidents must maintain this alliance in order to have a good relationship with their armed forces.

Marcos could be seen as the candidate closest to China. He may also benefit from China’s business interests. Marcos favors a bilateral approach with China. This is better for Beijing, but it will not be accepted by those who want a multilateral approach. Robredo might pursue this approach.

Marcos was pragmatic in acknowledging that the Philippines is not a match for it militarily. Therefore, he should not expect a harsh stance. Robredo opposes Chinese provocations. He reminds Beijing about the 2016 annulment of most South China Sea claims by an international court.

WHAT HAS DUTERTE’S ROLE BEEN?

Duterte and Robredo have had a difficult love affair, however Duterte was characteristically open-minded over Marcos. He has both praised Marcos and challenged his ability to lead.

Duterte is not one of Marcos’ endorsers, or any other candidates. However, Duterte also hasn’t sought to attack Marcos or his reputation.

Marcos won securing Sara Duterte Carpio’s daughter as his vice-presidential running mate. It was an important win that helped him absorb some of the incumbent’s cultlike following on social media.

It has led to speculation about a deal that would have allowed Duterte to win the presidency, which in turn made it easier for Marcos.

It was notable that Duterte thanked Imee (politician and Marcos Jr.) for her support of his campaign, which she dismissed later as a joke. Duterte also praised the late dictator, and controversially permitted his body to move to a Filipino “heroes” cemetery after many years of unsuccessful attempts by the family.

HOW IMPORTANT IS SUCCESSION OF DUTERTE

There are many political vendettas in the Philippines. Ex-presidents can be jailed or taken to court. Duterte is not without enemies.

Although they did not affect his popularity, Duterte was plagued by scandals that involved allies and appointees. Some of these could come back later.

Lawyer and activist groups are holding Duterte responsible in relation to the thousands of executions of drug-pushers and users during his War on Drugs.

Robredo, who has been an outspoken critic of President Duterte’s use of lethal tactics to fight drugs and crime, would likely be more open to allowing investigations. However, with Marcos as his vice president and Robredo in charge of the investigation, Duterte would be better protected.