Phil Stewart, Idrees A. Ali

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – As Ukraine is provided with more sophisticated weapons by the United States and its allies, Washington held talks with Kyiv regarding the possibility of escalation if Russia strikes deep within Russia. U.S. diplomats tell Reuters.

Behind-the scenes discussions are very sensitive. Three U.S. diplomats and officials said that the discussions sought to come to a common understanding about the possibility of an escalation.

One of three U.S. officials spoke on condition of anonymity, saying that while they have concerns regarding escalation, they do not wish to place geographic limitations or tie their hands with what we give them.

The administration of President Joe Biden, and allies from the United States, have shown an increasing willingness to provide Ukraine with longer-range weaponry including M777 howitzers. As Kyiv defeats Russia’s invaders more effectively than American intelligence analysts had anticipated, they are now willing to offer Ukraine longer-range weapons, such as Harpoon antiship missiles. Kyiv would be more accessible if the Pentagon announced last week that Denmark will supply Ukraine Harpoon antiship rockets.

After originally predicting that Russia would overrun Ukraine, American officials recently expressed hope that Ukrainian forces could win the war and are willing to arm them.

According to U.S. officials, the Biden administration may be considering providing Kyiv the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. (HIMARS) can range hundreds of kilometers depending on the type of munitions.

U.S. intelligence warns about increasing risks because of the mismatch between Russian President Vladimir Putin’s apparent ambitions, and his military’s performance. Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence said that the future could see war take an “unpredictable and potentially escalatory” trajectory. This was a statement he made to a Senate committee this month.

Although the United States isn’t directly fighting Russian forces, Pentagon commanders keep in touch with Ukrainian leaders. They provide critical intelligence which has enabled Ukraine to attack Russian troops on land and sea.

Unnamed American official also spoke under condition of anonymity and stated that Washington and Kyiv have a mutual understanding about Western-provided weapon system use.

According to the official, “So far we have been on the exact same page regarding the thresholds.”

A request to comment was not received by the Ukraine’s defense ministry immediately.

MILITARY TARGETS

Russia attacked the capital of Ukraine and other locations that are far away from the fighting frontlines. Ukraine did not respond with an attack on the capital of Russia or strikes deep within Russia. This includes attacks on weapons factories and supply centers far away from Russia’s border.

Russian officials repeatedly accuse the Ukrainian military of carrying out cross-border attack, which included on Belgorod’s fuel depot. They justified their invasion partly on the basis that Ukraine was a danger to Russia. This idea is rejected by Kyiv as well as the West.

According to one diplomat source, this was an indication that Kyiv knew the sensitive nature of cross-border actions. However, Ukraine declined to comment on any alleged involvement. American officials have not yet commented.

In April, the Pentagon made public U.S. sensibilities. It cited intelligence warnings from the United States about the possibility of military escalation with Russia and NATO if Russia transferred fighter jets into Ukraine.

Jason Crow, a Democratic Representative, visited Ukraine over the last month. He spoke to Volodymyr Zelenskiy about the escalation risks and said that Ukraine will use the weapons from the south.

Russia’s campaign is now focusing in the south, three months after its failed attempt at capturing Kyiv.

Crow, who is a former Army Ranger and sits on two congressional committees, the Armed Services Committee, and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, stated that “we should repeat, as we do, in all instances, that these weapons must be used responsibly.”

“But, I don’t care about the issue of escalated. All that matters is making sure that the Ukrainians are able to win now and pushing back on the Russian forces.”

First U.S. official stated that Ukraine has many targets it can hit within Ukraine. This was in order to obtain longer-range weapons from Western allies.

Douglas Lute (a former U.S. ambassador in NATO, and a retired Army lieutenant General), agreed with the assertion that Ukraine is home to enough Russian targets for them to worry.

He acknowledged that there was a risk of political and military escalation within NATO if Ukraine strikes deep inside Russia.

It could spark divisions within the alliance. The alliance does not want this. Lute said that Ukraine is not included in the alliance.”

The question that remains is whether Ukraine can change its strategy in the event of a war turning sour, possibly using U.S.-provided weapons in ways not intended.

According to the U.S. second official, “There are scenarios in which the Ukrainians feel that they must escalate further.”