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Analysis-Lebanon is dragged back into eye of Iranian-Saudi storm -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO A man is seen walking near a newspaper that has a headline reading “Saudi Arabia Announces a Boycott with Lebanon”, in Beirut (Lebanon), October 30, 2021. REUTERS/Aziz Taher/File Photo

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Ghaida Ghantous, Tom Perry

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Already mired in economic collapse, Lebanon is facing a blast of Gulf Arab anger after a prominent broadcaster-turned-minister levelled blunt criticism at Saudi Arabia, in a row that has further strained Beirut’s ties with once generous benefactors.

The diplomatic freeze that has erupted due to the latest spat is feared by many ordinary Lebanese. It stems from a rivalry between Saudi Arabian and Iranian which underlies conflicts throughout the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab monarchies spent billions in Lebanon aid. They still offer jobs and refuge for large numbers of Lebanon’s diaspora. However, the influence of Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah has made the friendship strained over time.

The Gulf Arabs’ relations with Lebanon reached a new low last week after George Kordahi (a former host of gameshows) appeared on an interview supporting Yemen’s Iran aligned Houthis as well as criticising their Saudi-led fighting forces.

Riyadh has lost as much influence in Lebanon than Tehran, and Kordahi’s remarks were only a sign of Hezbollah continuing dominance on the political scene. However, they were recorded prior to his election.

His comments come as Houthis are advancing in Yemen. This highlights the deepening Iranian-Saudi rivalries. The U.S.’s failure to make progress on a nuclear deal with Iran has fueled concerns in the Gulf about Tehran.

Saudi Arabia and the other U.S.-allied Gulf countries have struggled for years to combat the Iranian influence in the region. Tehran is known for arming, financing, and training Shi’ite Muslim groups that are modeled after Hezbollah. It was founded in 1982.

At the weekend, Saudi Arabia’s foreign Minister told Reuters that the matter went far beyond Kordahi’s comments. Suleiman Frangieh was named as Prime Minister Najib Mirata’s Government by Suleiman Frangieh. Frangieh is a Maronite Christian who has been a close ally to Shi’ite Muslim Hezbollah.

Prince Faisal bin Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud declared, “It’s crucial that the government in Lebanon…forges forward that frees Lebanonfrom the current political structure which reinforces Hezbollah’s dominance,”

Saudi Arabia, Gulf allies and Iran have expelled Lebanese ambassadors. They also recall their diplomats from Beirut. Riyadh stopped all imports to Lebanon. These countries were already in trouble due an earlier Saudi ban placed on Lebanese fruit and vegetables.

“From Riyadh’s vantage point, this recent crisis is seen as an opportunity to pressure the Lebanese system to take a stand against Iran and Hezbollah,” said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program.

“GULF DISCONTENT”

Seemed from Tehran, Riyadh’s action shows that the Saudis are falling to Iran diplomatically and need some leverage. This was according to a top Iranian hardline official who is close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Muhammad Khamenei.

Official said that Riyadh could isolate Lebanon, but it wouldn’t be able isolate Hezbollah.

Any measures that would affect the thousands of Lebanese working in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (and the millions of dollars they are sending home to a country in deep poverty) is a concern.

Lebanese expats residing in the Gulf fear for their safety, despite promises that they will be allowed to return home.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE political analyst said that Saudi Arabia is careful not to penalize the Lebanese as was done with other Gulf countries. He said that other measures “to communicate the deep Gulf discontent towards Hezbollah,” such as ending flight, could be taken.

Riyadh has taken action against Lebanon for the second time in recent times because of its hostility toward Hezbollah.

The sudden resignation by then Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri while visiting Riyadh in 2017 plunged Lebanon into chaos. According to sources, including the French president, he was held captive by Saudi Arabia at that time. Riyadh strongly denies that.

ELECTIONS

Mikati was not in need of another crisis as he struggles with the financial meltdown that has led to more than three quarters Lebanese falling into poverty.

Mikati is a billionaire businessman who claims Kordahi made the remarks before he was elected minister. Kordahi stated that he won’t quit.

Mikati’s cabinet was already troubled by a standoff regarding a probe into last years Beirut port explosion. Since October 12, Mikati’s cabinet hasn’t met.

Western countries want progress toward an IMF agreement and that elections are held as scheduled on March 27, 2018. Opponents of Hezbollah see the election to be a chance for them to reverse the 2018 majority that was won by it and other parties supporting its arms possession.

Hezbollah allies may lose Christian seats. Anti-Hezbollah Christian Lebanese Forces (also known as Riyadh’s last major Lebanese ally) is one party seeking to win.

Ghassan Hazani of the LF, a former deputy Prime Minister, stated that Lebanon was “being cut off” from the Arab world because Hezbollah’s behavior and those who support it in government.



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