Evergrande is a Chinese developer who has escaped default twice in one month. However, it seems unlikely that China’s larger economy can escape the consequences of the property sector downturn. It is possible that the next set of data will reveal just how awful it is.

British data on employment may help determine whether December’s Bank of England meeting is a “live” one. Finally, Turkey appears to have decided to lower interest rates after defying inflation of near-20%.

1. HOUSING FEES

Eleventh hour payments https://reut.rs/3HeXrE0 of overdue interest are helping China Evergrande squeak clear of default; the latest one has momentarily staunched bleeding in credit markets. Investors are weighing the economic impact of China’s property sector collapse on their economy. It is a cold comfort. Although iron ore prices are soaring due to demand concerns, investors still feel the pinch of that crippling property sector. However, signs of economic slowdown suggest that policy easing may not be happening as expected. https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-policy-idUSKBN2HT11VHome price data on Monday may show values stalled or even slowed last month. The outlook for the future is not bright if desperate investors flood the market selling stock at discounted prices.

The sector accounts for 25% the global No. 2 economy. This is a bad sign. This is also bad news for consumers, as figures expected Monday show a slowing of consumption.

(China housing market feels squeeze from credit woes – https://tmsnrt.rs/3EWEhku)

2/TWITTER FUN

Tesla (NASDAQ:) shares, whipsawed after co-founder Elon Musk asked Twitter (NYSE:) users https://reut.rs/2YGCUac whether he should sell a 10% stake in the electric car firm, are in focus.

Nearly 58% of respondents to the poll backed a sale of the shares and according to stock market filings, Musk has sold about $5 billion https://reut.rs/3Heg6Qw of shares over recent days.

In October, Tesla’s market value surpassed $1 trillion. This was an incredible run. This represents 2.1% of roughly $4 trillion in market capitalization, compared to 1.8% when Tesla joined index nearly a year ago.

Investors and traders are keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell’s nomination. Powell and Fed Governor Lael Brainard, a possible successor, were recently spotted at the White House https://reut.rs/3Daklu2. 

(Tesla in the S&P 500 – https://tmsnrt.rs/30bqV5h)

3/ DATA DEPENDENT

After stunning markets https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-defies-markets-keeps-rates-hold-2021-11-04 on Nov. 4 by not delivering a widely anticipated rate rise, the Bank of England said it wanted more evidence of labour market improvement. The Bank of England will need to collect two sets of data before Tuesday’s meeting.

Following good numbers for September https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-payrolled-employment-rises-by-another-207000-september-2021-10-12, October jobs data will show if unemployment rose after the Sept. 30 expiry of a pandemic-time wage subsidy scheme that one million people were estimated to be on.

Thursday and Friday’s retail sales and inflation data will be released. A big inflation print alongside another retail sales https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/uk-retail-sales-fall-unexpectedly-september-2021-10-22 decline will force the BoE to choose whether to act against inflation or nurture the fragile economy.

With an economy 0.6% smaller https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-grows-06-sept-after-weak-summer-ons-2021-11-11 below pre-pandemic levels and risks growing of a damaging confrontation with the EU https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/growing-expectation-uk-will-trigger-article-16-over-brexit-dispute-rte-2021-11-05, a rate rise is the last thing Britain needs. The BoE may be forced to accept a rate increase of up to 4% by inflation.

(UK Jobless rate – https://tmsnrt.rs/3D6W2gk)

4/ TURKEY and THE CUTS

Turkey’s central banks meet on Thursday. Although its currency has stumbled from record low to record low and inflation stands at around 20%, policymakers are expected cut rates further from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-cenbank-cut-policy-rate-15-lira-hits-record-lows-2021-11-11 the current 16% level, prioritising growth over price pressures.

The sinking lira that is flirting with 10 dollars could be a problem for an economy dependent heavily on imports of energy. Firms and government have a large amount of hard currency debt.

Turkey is a loner among global central banks that have already or are about to enter tightening cycles https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ramping-up-rates-emerging-central-banks-feel-inflation-pain-2021-11-03. South Africa’s central bank, also meeting on Thursday, is seen embarking on hikes soon while Indonesia is expected to hold rates https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bank-indonesia-hold-rates-until-late-2022-awaiting-economic-resurgence-2021-10-15 the same day. The Hungarian central bank is seen moving up the gear on Tuesday.

(Lira timeline November 2021 – https://tmsnrt.rs/3n6oOIm)

5/ WORLD VS. COVID

COVID-19 remains a formidable foe. Germany is battling https://reut.rs/3F68BZM record-high new cases, New Zealand is fighting off the highly infectious Delta variant and the Netherlands could soon impose a partial lockdown.

However, the United States feels confident enough to ease travel restrictions https://reut.rs/30iV3eX. Japan on Nov. 7 recorded no daily COVID deaths for the first time in over a year https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-has-zero-daily-covid-19-deaths-first-time-15-months-media-2021-11-08.

Developed countries are already lining up to secure a new antiviral pill that shows promising efficacy https://reut.rs/3n3GhRY in some trials. The 2022 economic forecasts of economists will be closely monitored by them.

(World COVID-19 new daily cases – https://tmsnrt.rs/3krKgWw)