Aidan Lewis, Nafisa Eltahir

KHARTOUM, Reuters – With the resignation of Sudan’s prime minister, the military is now in complete control. However the population feels that their hopes of democratic rule are being thwarted.

Analysts and diplomats believe that more instability is possible within Sudanese borders and beyond if there’s no new direction towards transition and credible elections.

After his government was dissolved in a coup in October, Abdalla Hamdok https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sudans-abdalla-hamdok-2022-01-02 had returned in a bid to salvage a transitional power-sharing arrangement between the military and civilians that was struck following Omar al-Bashir’s overthrow in a 2019 uprising. Sudan’s autocratic leader Bashir ruled for over three decades.

Hamdok departs leaving the country cut off from international economic support https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/exclusive-sudan-cut-off-650-million-international-funding-after-coup-2021-12-08, jolted by frequent anti-military protests, and threatened by resurgent violence https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/aid-groups-warn-rise-darfur-violence-dozens-killed-kreinik-2021-12-09 and displacement in the western region of Darfur.

He was unsuccessful in his attempts to achieve a peaceful transition because of the withdrawing support promised by some political factions, and inability to stop violent protesters. This according to a Sudanese mediator who participated in negotiations before and after Hamdok’s departure.

A majority of the civilian coalition members that brokered the agreement to share power on the basis a 2019 Constitution declaration declares publicly that they will not negotiate or work with the military.

A member of Khartoum’s local resistance committee said, “The only thing that we can say is to go back to our barracks.”

That could leave the military to appoint loyalists to a new administration, building on nominations of Bashir era veterans https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sudans-military-rulers-draw-bashir-era-veterans-tighten-grip-2021-11-11 that it made after its takeover and that Hamdok partially rolled back.

According to the mediator who spoke under anonymity, “The military won’t name a government until the civilians gather it together and meet them.” “I believe in the end people are going to sit down together and return to the Constitution declaration and adjust it.”

After the coup, the military stated that they wanted to hold elections in 2023. The military says that it will transition to democracy.

The takeover exacerbated distrust in the military by civilian parties. However, the resistance movement has long opposed any role for the army as a political force.

Anger has risen after a crackdown on rallies across the country against the coup, which has resulted in nearly 60 deaths and thousands of protesters being arrested. The intelligence services were given new powers.

FOREIGN FUNDING ON HAOLD

The Western countries, still able to exert some influence due to several billions of dollars in economic assistance that was halted following the coup, try and steer the military from moving forward on its own.

They urged immediate dialogue https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-europeans-warn-sudans-military-against-excluding-civilians-transition-2022-01-04 on Tuesday, warning they would not support any government without the involvement of a broad range of civilian groups. According to them, a unilateral approach would risk launching Sudan into renewed violence.

One diplomat from Europe said that “the military cares very deeply because they know the country cannot continue without economic support.” His comments were prompted by instability in Libya and Ethiopia, which he stated that Sudan could collapse.

While the United Nations Mission in Sudan offered to facilitate dialog, diplomats said it was not yet clear how this could happen and suggested that countries such as Saudi Arabia and America might need to take action.

Ahmed Soliman is a Chatham House research fellow. The think tank is based in London.

To reestablish some trust, there must be another arrangement.

According to Western diplomats it was more challenging than usual in 2019 to reach a settlement that would open the way for democratic elections. The exit of Hamdok could be a step towards a reconciliation, as he was a former U.N. official and consensus builder.

Some saw Hamdok being in that position as a fig-leaf, but his resignation could allow for a stronger conversation between the international community and the civil groups, said Lauren Blanchard of the U.S. Congressional Research Service, a Sudan expert.

“It is evident that a mediation mechanism will be needed. Hamdok was unable to bridge that gap.