Aaron Ross, David Lewis

DAKAR (Reuters – Mali was hit with severe economic sanctions earlier this month by West African nations. This is to deter coup leaders and halt a series of military takeovers in the region that has plagued it since 2020.

Burkina Faso’s army didn’t get the message. On Monday, two weeks after the 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced the sanctions, the Burkinabe army arrested President Roch Kabore and seized power https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/burkina-faso-president-kabore-detained-military-camp-sources-tell-reuters-2022-01-24.

As the international community condemned West Africa’s fourth coup in 18 months, crowds in the capital Ouagadougou cheered https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/burkina-faso-crowd-celebrates-west-africas-latest-coup-2022-01-25 the Burkinabe army – a contrast to anti-coup protests that erupted when the military briefly seized power in 2015.

Reactions in Mali as well as Guinea were mirrored by the warm reception shown to them home.

As West African countries and their international allies struggle to respond, many people lose faith in the governments they see as manipulating democracy and incapable of alleviating poverty and repelling Islamist militant violence.

They are not new. ECOWAS, unlike its loud opposition to military coups, remained silent while the current presidents retained their power through what critics refer to as “constitutional coups”.

Abdoulaye Barry (a Burkinabe researcher, at the United Nations University for Peace) stated that “Today, ECOWAS [is not a credible organization to people].”

They will not be able to provide adequate solutions for the governance deficit. Coups will multiply as long.

Unable to speak for ECOWAS, a spokesperson could not be reached.

France and its European allies have also maintained a strong military presence in the region. These forces are partnered with local armed forces fighting groups like al Qaeda, Islamic State and other terrorist organizations. Thus, military support has continued despite protestations of coups.

France, in particular, has been sending thousands of troops to West Africa’s Sahel region for the past decade. However, security has declined steadily, which has contributed to anti-French feelings.

OPENING IN RUSSIA

These sanctions as well as international condemnations may have helped to strengthen the standing of coup leaders in their home country.

Mali’s military-led transitional administration, which took control in an August 2020 coup, has reneged on the promise of holding elections next month. It instead proposed that it would continue to lead for four more years.

Sanctions imposed by ECOWAS on Mali included closing its borders and locking it out of the regional financial market. These could be devastating for the poor landlocked country.

While the rising cost of food and scarcity could make people rebel against the authorities and force the junta into negotiations, sanctions are currently having the opposite effect.

Tens of thousands marched in protest against the sanctions that some critics of junta call draconian. Signs that said “Down with ECOWAS”, and “Down with France” were held by protesters.

Leaders of the coup have made new allies. As tensions with France rose, Mali’s interim government struck a deal with Russia to send in military trainers https://www.reuters.com/world/mali-denies-deployment-russian-mercenaries-says-only-trainers-present-2021-12-25.

France and its Western Allies claim that many of the trainers in question are mercenaries working for a private contractor, as per European Union sanctions. This is denied by Malian officials.

One West African diplomat stated that alliances beyond the U.N. structure are emerging, and they claim security and economic partners in Africa. She cited Russia China Turkey and the Gulf States.

Alexander Ivanov was the representative of Russian military training in Central African Republic and made a statement about the current situation in Burkina Faso on Tuesday.

Ivanov claimed that Russian instructors could be invited to Burkina Faso’s army to teach them.

However, the Burkinabe government has not yet commented on any Russian military deployment. Some of the protestors carried Russian flags at the Tuesday pro-coup rally.

It is possible to weaken military takeover punishments by forming alliances close to home.

Guinea refused to follow ECOWAS’s order to its member countries to close their borders to Mali. However, it allowed continued access to Conakry port. Burkina Faso borders Mali as well, but the junta has yet not said whether it would do so.

ROOT CAUSES

ECOWAS, which was founded to foster economic integration in West Africa’s postcolonial West Africa in 1975, is still able to inflict pain via sanctions.

U.N. data shows that nearly 30% of Mali trades with ECOWAS countries. Food prices have begun to rise in Bamako’s capital, residents claim.

Diplomats and analysts claim that the decreasing credibility of ECOWAS has hampered their influence in the region.

It was 2015 when some argued that the bloc almost banned presidential third terms. This happened after Blaise Compaore, Burkina Faso’s former leader, was ousted by the opposition in a revolt sparked from his attempts to extend his tenure in office.

This would have been an unprecedented move for any African regional organization, but it didn’t happen.

ECOWAS remained silent during 2020, when Ivory Coast and Guinea’s presidents won their third terms. They had changed the constitutions to prevent them from running again.

Said Djinnit (ex-commissioner of peace and security for the African Union) said that ECOWAS must address the root causes behind the coups… and also the circumstances where governments use the constitutions in order to stay in power.

The military used anger over the third term of President Alpha Conde in Guinea to overthrow him last September.

The ruling junta in Guinea has said it would oversee the transition to democracy, but declined to give a date. ECOWAS has imposed specific sanctions on junta members as well their families.