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Myanmar economy to remain ‘severely tested’ by coup fallout

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – A woman purchases fruits from a Naypyitaw market on January 24, 2012. REUTERS/Damir Samgolj

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(Reuters.) Myanmar’s economy is expected to remain weak through 2022. The effects of a coup a decade ago will have a severe impact on the country’s economic health. But, the World Bank reports that recent signs indicate that the nation has stabilised in terms of manufacturing and exports.

According to its most recent update, Myanmar’s economic situation, the World Bank predicts a growth rate of 1.1% for the year ending September 2022. However, this is influenced by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and military overthrow on February 1st 2021.

Since the coup, the economy of Myanmar has plummeted. The junta’s crackdown against its enemies and the subsequent backlash from the armed groups have led to foreign companies retreating because they are concerned about sanctions and political risk.

According to the World Bank, there are significant supply and demand problems, cashflow shortfalls for companies, and limited credit access. Half of all firms it surveyed had difficulties due to the sharp decline in the value of kyat.

In its January economic monitor, the World Bank stated, “The near term outlook will depend upon the evolution of pandemics and the effects on conflict, along with the degree that foreign exchange and financial sectors constraints persist, as well disruptions to key services like electricity, logistics, and digital connectivity.”

Myanmar’s ruling junta is blaming “sabotage”, a foreign-backed, for the last year’s economic crises.

On Thursday, the military government claimed it approved $3.8 billion for foreign investments since the coup. This was due to “a return to stability” and “confidence in its economic potential.”

According to the World Bank, events following the coup are likely to restrict Myanmar’s potential growth. Most indicators suggest that private investment has fallen significantly, but import costs have risen, and foreign currencies value kyat-denominated revenue less.

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