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Euro zone inflation unexpectedly hits new record high -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: An enquirer pays in euro with a bank note at a Nice market, France on April 3, 2019. REUTERS/Eric Gaillard/File Photograph

FRANKFURT, (Reuters) – The Euro zone’s inflation reached a record-breaking high in the last month. This defied expectations of a large drop and added to doubts already rife that price pressures will be as temporary and benign as the European Central Bank expects.

According to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency, inflation rose to 5.1% from December at 5%. This is well above expectations of a fall to 4.4%.

The inflation rate remained high due to soaring energy costs, and food prices rose as well. However, the inflation rates for services and industrial products remained uncomfortablely high.

Price growth of 5.1% is twice that of the ECB’s 2% target. However, the central bank holds a policy meeting Thursday. The bank has ignored the data for several months and argued that the increase in inflation was caused by temporary factors.

The ECB’s record with forecasting inflation has been mixed. It was even forced multiple times to dramatically increase its projections last year.

Although the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned the notion that inflation was “transitory”, the ECB maintained this assessment. It argued that wage growth, a condition of durable inflation and a precondition for price growth, is still weak.

While core inflation slowed slightly, it remained well above the ECB target. Market expectations were also met by a large margin.

Inflation excluding fuel and food prices was closely monitored by the ECB and fell to 2.5% from 2.7%. A narrower measure which includes alcohol and tobacco products fell to 2.3% instead of 2.6%. These figures are well beyond expectations.

Although the ECB predicts inflation falling to 2% this year due to low wage growth, a large number of policymakers and experts have questioned it, warning that there are higher chances.

The weak wage growth may be a sign that the economy is not growing as expected. However, the unemployment rate fell to 7% during December. That is an all-time low in the eurozone. It is also well below the ECB’s forecasts.

The policymakers of the ECB are expected to meet on Thursday, following December’s extension of stimulus via a complicated package.

Christine Lagarde, chief of the ECB, may admit that prices pressures are continuing to exceed projections. However, she will likely push back against mounting rate rise expectations and reiterate her long-standing stance, that rate increases this year would be unlikely.

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