TOKYO (Reuters – Japan’s core consumer inflation likely slowed from January, a Reuters survey showed. It reinforces expectations that Japan’s central bank won’t be as aggressive in raising interest rate.

A separate report is expected to reveal that Japan had the highest trade deficit for eight years in January, as a result of persistently rising fuel costs and high raw material prices. This data was compiled by Reuters economists.

A poll of 16 economists revealed that the national core consumer price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in January compared to December. It was down from 0.5% in December.

One-off events such as the late 2020 suspension of the government’s travel discount program are responsible for the slowdown.

Analysts say that consumers will see an increase in inflation if they are able to remove temporary factors.

Takeshi Minami is the chief economist of Norinchukin Research Institute. “Imported goods have seen a rise in prices, and it’s spreading to domestic prices that were previously very low,” he said.

Yet, analysts predict that consumers will continue to influent at a level below the Bank of Japan’s 2% goal, which would force the central bank’s ultra-loose policies.

Data from separate sources will show that Japan had a trade deficit worth 1,607 trillion yen ($13.91 Billion) in January. This is the highest shortfall since January 2014.

According to the poll, January saw an increase of fuel prices and imports that likely rose 37.1%, far more than the 16.5% growth in exports.

According to the poll, core machinery orders are also due next Wednesday. This will mark the first fall in four months and a 1.8% decrease month-on-month.

CPI data from the government will be available at 8:30 am on February 18, (2330GMT), Feb. 17. CPI data, including data on trade and machine orders are due by 8:50 AM on February 17 (2330GMT), Feb. 16.

($1 = 115.5200 yen)