MUNICH – A sense of helplessness and dread hangs in the air over the Western leaders gathered here at the Munich Security Conference as the expectation grows that Russian President Vladimir PutinIn a matter of days or even hours, we will begin launching a military assault on Ukraine.

There is also a renewed, reenergized sense of shared cause and unity between the U.S. government and its allies. This balances against a growing conviction about the historical moment. NATO allies and partners have never engaged in more intense military planning, design of sanctions and intelligence sharing since the Cold War ended. 

It is uncertain what the future of Europe will look like. Putin’s determined to end the Cold War by creating a Russian area of influence through force. Or the return to the common cause with the West that it provoked. There is always opportunity in a crisis, however, it remains to be seen how severe or long-lasting the Western response will be.

Leaders in Europe and the U.S. have had to work hard to convince their citizens of the threats Putin presents to post-Cold War values: that border lines can’t ever be erased using force; that great powers cannot be permitted to subjugate others and that each country should make their own decisions about alliances and other associations. 

A mounting tide of indisputable evidence has shown that Putin is on track to launch the “Russian Revolution” biggest military actionSince 1945, the world has been witness to this.

A U.S. official with real-time intelligence told me that he could not draw any other conclusions from growing evidence showing Putin wouldn’t take on this much trouble, expense, and logistical maneuvering if he didn’t want to do serious things with the country.

After years of being more focused on less immediate issues like climate change or pandemic response, the mood is disbelief here that such conflict could be possible in Europe today.

There is also a mood of resignation that all the West’s threats of political and economic sanctions – and commitment to move NATO forces forward to allied countries on the eastern front should Putin further attack Ukraine — won’t be enough to sway the Russian leader from what he considers his historic imperative.

Munich is filled with psychologists who have been to Moscow with Putin, and many are wondering why this preternaturally calculated man is now playing the lottery. Russian counterparts have heard him tell his Russian counterparts that he’s entering “uncharted territory.” European officials who are most familiar with Putin believe control over Ukraine is more of an obsession than a strategy after he was in power for 22 years and just before turning 70. It is impossible to endanger what he called “ancien Rus” last summer in his essay on Ukraine, and which would secure his place in the nation’s historical record.

Here, European officials give a lot of credit to the U.S. president Joe Biden’sAdministration to prevent Putin’s control of the narrative by releasing intelligence, both open source and classifiedThis is a statement by the U.S. regarding Russia’s massive troop buildup as well as plans for false flag operation to prove that Ukraine was inciting Russia’s military actions. In less than an hour, U.S. officials rebutted Putin’s claim that Russian troops were retreating.  

Michael Carpenter (the U.S. Ambassador to Europe) spoke here. Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said Russia has now deployed between 169,000 and 190,000 military personnel near Ukraine and in Crimea – far more than U.S. allies had known — a disturbing increase from a force of 100,000 on Jan. 30.

Carpenter stated, “This mobilization is the largest since World War II.” It is not clear how or when Putin will utilize all those troops. However, experts are proving less confident that he will.

Former U.S. Army commander General David Petraeus and CIA Director said that the most striking thing about the Ukraine situation is the large deployment of “enablers”, which are usually not present in military maneuvers. He said, “For exercises you don’t require field hospitals.” You need them to invade.

It is alarming to know how far back the West could have resisted Putin’s revanchism 15 years ago. speechIt landed on the Bayerischer Hof Hotel conference hall like a handgrenade.

A few weeks later, in April 2007, Russia. launched a series of cyberattacks on Estonia, it invaded Georgia in 2008, it annexed Crimea in 2014And then, it backed Russian-separatists in the Donetsk and LuhanskUkraine. The journey will take you through the following: Putin more brutally repressed opposition at homeWhile Russia was not connected to the outside world, assassinations, poisoning, cyberattacks, election meddling disinformation campaigns.

Putin smiled at his Munich audience, February 2007. said“The conference format will enable me to express my true views on international security issues. And if my comments seem unduly polemical…then I would ask you not to get angry with me. This is a conference.

His point was quickly made: “One country, and first and foremost, the United States has reached beyond its borders in all aspects. You can see this in America’s economic, political, and educational policies. Who likes that? “Who is content with this?”

His quote of former U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt about why the post-Cold War Security Order could not be sustained was the height of absurdity. Putin quoted FDR to say that “if peace has been broken anyplace, then the peace of all nations is in danger.”

Putin is now breaking the peace.

Another well-known historical association is with the city. It is known for the Munich Agreement, which was signed Sept. 30, 1938 by France, Germany, France and Italy. This agreement saw Hitler’s German-speaking Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia given to them. Europe rejoiced in the signing of the agreement at that time as a way to stop major war.

The lesson of Munich then — Munich of 15 years ago, and Munich today — is the same: Appeasement doesn’t reduce dangers but only increases them. Putin may not change his intentions on Ukraine. But the U.S., its allies, and their partners, can capitalize on this threat by supporting their common cause, even in the face the strongest assaults yet against the post-World War II international system. 

—Frederick Kempe is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.