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Investors brace for volatility as West moves to cut Russia off from SWIFT -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO A trader is seen working on the New York Stock Exchange floor in New York City (U.S.A), February 18, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Davide Barbuscia (Catherine Belton) and Ira Iosebashvili

NEW YORK/LONDON – After the West announced a stringent set of sanctions against Russia, investors were anticipating more volatility in asset prices. This included blocking banks of SWIFT’s international payment system.

The United States, Canada, Britain and Europe have announced new measures that will restrict the Russian central bank’s international reserves. In the days ahead, sanctions will be in place.

Investors were worried about Russia being kicked out of SWIFT (the world’s largest international payment network), as this would cause disruption to global trade, and also hurt Western interests, along with hitting Russia.

Sergei Aleksashenko, former deputy chairman of the Russian Central Bank, stated that it meant there would be a crisis on Russia’s currency market Monday. “I believe that they will cease trading. Then, the exchange rate can be artificially fixed to an artificial level much like it was in Soviet times.

Michael Farr, chief executive of financial consulting firm Farr, Miller & Washington LLC, said of the impact on global markets, “This could be a surprise that is not taken very well if it means a slowdown in international trade.”

After a week of turmoil caused by fears about Ukraine’s growing conflict, markets around the globe were shaken. Oil prices rose and stocks tumbled as investors flew to the safe havens such as gold or the dollar.

Many of the safety maneuvers were not fully unwound Thursday and Friday and U.S. stocks markets rallied to close for the week.

Markets could be sent on a wild ride by the latest developments as traders evaluate the potential implications for global economies, such as higher commodity prices or inflation. The war between Russia, one of the world’s biggest raw materials’ exporters, and Ukraine has already helped push up oil prices to their highest level since 2014.

There will be inflation, which can slow down the European economy to a certain extent. Farr warned that this could lead to headwinds.

This is a 8% drop for the current year, due to concerns over geopolitical tensions and a Federal Reserve more hawkish.

“A lot of traders were kind of becoming convinced that the U.S. and Europe were not taking a hard stance,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. “This action will be really difficult to digest and it will really pick a nerve for a lot of investors. … A lot of the rebound we saw in the latter half of last week will be tested.”

However, some investors suggested that the market could be positive about the new measures, as the West has not joined the conflict.

“It’s the closest thing to a declaration of war from a financial perspective,” said Ross Delston, a U.S. lawyer and former banking regulator. “It’s going to result in Russia being viewed as radioactive by U.S. and EU banks, which in turn would be a major barrier to trade with Russia.”

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