By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters). – Rising energy and food costs a result of Russia’s invasion Ukraine could exacerbate already existing food security issues in Africa and the Middle East as well as fuel social unrest. Carmen Reinhart, World Bank Chief Economist, stated that.

Germany will host Friday’s virtual meeting of G7 agriculture ministers to discuss the impacts of the invasion, as well as concerns regarding stabilizing food markets.

Reinhart said that there would be “important ramifications” for Africa, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. These countries had been suffering from food insecurity. Reinhart spoke to Reuters during an interview.

She said that although she is not trying to sound melodramatic it was clear that food insecurity, riots, and other problems were part of what led to the Arab Spring. Furthermore, she added that the number and success rate of coups over the last two years had increased.

Arab Spring describes a number of peaceful protests and revolts for democracy which took place across the Middle East and North African countries starting in Tunisia, 2010 and expanding to Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Syria.

Social unrest can result from sudden increases in food prices, such as in 2007-2008 or 2011, which saw riots across more than 40 countries due to global food price rises.

According to the World Bank, agricultural commodities are already up 35% compared to last year and will continue to climb due to war. Ukraine and Russia are the two largest exporters of maize, wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other crops, according to reports.

Moscow refers to its actions in Ukraine “special operations”.

Experts believe that rising food and energy prices may also prompt policymakers to increase subsidies. These could add to heavy debts in many low-income nations, where about 60 countries are already or will soon be in financial distress.

Last month, the bank warned that the effects could be especially severe in North Africa and the Middle East. These countries are home to up to 80% of their wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. Mozambique also imports large amounts of wheat, oil, and other commodities.

Reinhart stated that Central Asia’s economic problems were also significant due to their strong economic and trade links to Russia. The International Monetary Fund anticipates that this country will be in recession as a consequence of Western sanctions.

She said that the crisis has already affected their currencies and she saw signs of panic, including runs on the banks and confidence problems, as well as food insecurity and (drop in) transfer payments. This could lead to refugee flow complications.