Catherine Belton

LONDON (Reuters) – Talks between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers produced no apparent progress towards a ceasefire on Thursday but analysts said the fact they were even meeting left a window open for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Dmytro Kuneba of Ukraine said Sergei Lavrov from Russia had told him he was not authorized to negotiate any ceasefire in Mariupol. The city is under intense fire from Russian artillery.

Lavrov however left open the possibility of further discussions and a meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin.

“I hope that this will become necessary at some point,” Lavrov said. However, preparation work is necessary for such a move.

Moscow’s position – at least rhetorically — has appeared to soften in recent days, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying the war could stop “in a moment” if Kyiv agreed to a list of demands that has appeared to narrow since the start of the war.

While the focus is now on Ukraine’s neutrality and status in Russian-occupied areas, the Russian foreign ministry stated that it did not seek to overthrow Kyiv’s government.

However, the Kremlin continues its military offensive. They struck a Mariupol maternity hospital with missiles. Also, they seek to be closer to Kyiv the Ukrainian capital.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday that Russian forces were “indiscriminately” using lethal weapons against civilian targets. “I am worried, pessimistic,” the French leader said, adding he saw no diplomatic solution in the coming days.

HARD ROAD

Analysts said the road ahead for any negotiation would be difficult, but Moscow’s slower than expected military progress and the stinging cost of economic sanctions imposed by a united West had potentially opened an opportunity for a compromise.

Nikolai Petrov from Chatham House, senior Eurasia research fellow said that Moscow’s position has been weakened because it was unable to execute their original plans.

Putin regards the imposition sanctions as a very bad thing. They’re destroying the Russian economy, and they also have an impact on those around them.”

Petrov stated that Putin was facing a more difficult situation with his army.

“The army has become demoralized and isn’t ready to go on a long-term mission. He said that they initially spoke about days, but it was completely different when there is a long war.

For those in the elite political class who felt the war as a shock, it is clear that Putin’s colossal tragedy was an utter surprise. The Russian side has softened its position but it can’t soften it any further.”

Some others, however, warned that Putin might still attempt to escalate. The Kremlin’s leader, who was determined by the threat of escalating sanctions on Russia on Thursday, said that Russia would be stronger from economic sanctions while the West will eventually recover.

Sergei Guriev (an ex-chief economist at the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development) stated that there is “pressure from the elite” for a compromise.

It is not clear how efficient it could be. Putin seems to have been increasing his double-down. He may even say, I’ll go on, if he is certain that in the future he will be able to surround Kyiv.

Guriev explained that an “immediate decision” on a new EU embargo against Russian oil imports was important. He spoke in reference to the ongoing EU discussions on joining a US-UK ban on Russian oil purchase.

“WE HAVE MOVED THE DIAL”

Jonathan Eyal (associate director, Royal United Services Institute) in London said that “the first indicator that Moscow is ready to accept regime change” was the Kremlin’s reframe of its demands.

“There is also an element of compromise in Zelenskiy’s declaration about an alternative to NATO membership,” he said.

We have made the process more transparent and there is now a possibility of a dialogue. Eyal stated that troop movements towards Kyiv could indicate the worse.

On Tuesday Zelenskiy responded to the apparent softening of Moscow’s demands by saying he was ready to withdraw the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, an aim that is currently enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution but has long been a source of deep concern for Russia.

Zelenskiy said instead, however, he wanted a collective security agreement with the participation of Ukraine’s neighbours, as well as the United States, France, Germany and Turkey, that would provide security guarantees in case of further attack.

Also, he said that he would be willing to compromise on Crimea which Russia annexed in 2014. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesperson for Russia, stated that Moscow now demands Kyiv recognize Crimea is Russian territory as well as the independent status of the separatist republics Donetsk (and Lugansk)

Analysts warned that the path to success was not easy for either side.

Eyal stated that “Russian conditions would still be a major blow to Ukraine… Zelenskiy will be asked to accept de jure loss to Ukrainian territory.”

While there had been no discussion of any withdrawal of Russian troops from territory it had taken since the start of the war, Zelenskiy’s desire for a collective security agreement instead of NATO membership meant “effectively he wants a bespoke NATO,” Eyal said.

Petrov said it would be psychologically difficult for Ukrainians to accept any loss of territory, particularly after Russia’s devastating invasion and Ukraine’s success so far in fiercely slowing it down, Petrov said.

This had to be balanced against the possibility of ending a war that saw hundreds dying every day.

Petrov declared that “the Ukrainians are so intoxicated that they can heroically resist what no one thought they could do, and that they know that if they get help from the West, then they’ll win.”

But this is incorrect and does not lead to a rational solution.