Waiting for sanctions to stop Russia could go ‘terribly wrong’: Niall Ferguson
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According to Niall Ferguson at Stanford University, the strategy of waiting to see Russia’s war machines stop because sanctions are in place could lead to “very wrong.”
He said, “It is a very risky strategy.”
According to him, the Ukrainian resistance will soon be defeated and the West’s sanctions won’t stop Russia. “Squawk Box Asia”On Friday.
According to him, the U.S. relies heavily on sanctions and late arms delivery to Ukraine. However, he is concerned about the possibility that the people fighting to protect Ukraine will not be able for the long-term.
He said that although the Russians suffered more losses than anticipated, they were still “advancing steadily”.
Ferguson explained that the assumption that economic sanctions will drag out and the United States is able to sit back while they do their job may not be correct.
Ukraine may not be able to hold out. What I fear is worsening news about Ukraine and the collapse of Ukraine’s defences.
Niall Ferguson
Hoover Institution senior fellow
Anna Ohanyan from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace echoed these sentiments.
“While the sanctions will start biting — perhaps can change Putin’s behavior down the road — at this point, they cannot be relied on as an instrument to be used to stop the violence,” said Ohanyan, a nonresident senior scholar in CEIP’s Russia and Eurasia program.
Ferguson stated, “It will not work fast enough for a Russian victory against Ukraine. I believe this is the key problem.”
‘Nightmare scenario’
Wide-ranging sanctions have been imposed by the U.S., its allies and Russia on account of its invasion in Ukraine. However, it seems that Russia is in a race against the Russian military developments and those that have crippled Moscow.
Ferguson stated that there is no assurance Ukraine will hold out. He also said, “What I dread most is steadily worse news about Ukraine and the crumbling of Ukraine’s defenses.”
“We’ll sit there saying, oh, well the sanctions have really hurt Russia — but it won’t matter to Putin because he will be able to claim victory. He added that this was the worst scenario for him.
Ferguson suggested that the U.S. support Ukraine’s defenses should be supported without turning it into an all-out NATO-Russia war.
The pace of arm deliveries to Ukraine was slowing down in the past, but now, there is an “frantic effort” to keep Ukraine fighting, he stated.
However, this could create conditions for a proxy war according to Ohanyan from CEIP.
It appears, unfortunately. [at]She said that sanctions and military assistance are at odds on this issue.
Chance to make a deal
Ferguson stated that the U.S. “misses an opportunity” because it relies on sanctions.
If Kyiv accepts neutrality, and takes NATO membership off of the table, then he said that he thinks a deal between Russia and Ukraine can be done.
He referred to the 2014 proposal by Henry Kissinger, former Secretary of State of America. It presented Ukraine as a neutral nation and not trying to join NATO.
He stated that it was clear that President Zelenskyy is willing to consider this idea. This is an important shift in Ukraine’s position to try to save its country from more destruction.
This week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, told ABC News he has “cooled down” regarding the question of joining NATO.
According to him, Ukraine knows that NATO does not want it to join the alliance and will not ask for NATO membership.
To avoid further bloodshed and destruction of Ukraine (which Ferguson stated seems to be Russia’s plan), peace is urgently required.
His goal was “to prevent Ukraine from being a successful democracy that is oriented toward the West,” he stated. You can accomplish that simply by dismantling Ukraine’s infrastructure, turning it into a charred pile of rubble, and unfortunately every day President Putin does more,” he stated.
Ohanyan said that there must be a diplomatic push for de-escalation, a cease-fire, and negotiations on “bigger topics.”
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