By John Davison

BAGHDAD, (Reuters) – Sunday’s terrorist attack in Iraqi City was billed by Tehran as a warning for Israel. However, it also served to remind Iran of its armed clout towards the U.S. Arab foes. This happened at a sensitive moment for Iran, according to Western and Iraqi officials, and independent analysts.

An unusually direct strike comes at the right time when the Middle East’s balance of power is in flux. As talks to revive the Iranian nuclear agreement face collapse and greater risks in the Gulf, Iraqi leaders in Baghdad are trying to establish a new government free of Iranian influence.

These developments are said to help explain Iran’s willingness to test its ability to use ballistic rockets. Iran is known for long valuing them as deterrents against Israel, the United States, and other Gulf Arab countries that challenge Tehran’s authority.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), decided to launch projectiles directly on territory under the control of the U.S.-friendly Kurdish Regional Government. This is a break from Iran’s regular procedure for applying military pressure via proxy militias. [L2N2VF0JB] 5N2N72Q8]

They struck near the building where Kurdistan’s independent regional capital Erbil is scheduled to relocate to. The missiles did not cause any U.S. deaths and only one casualty.

The IRGC claimed that the attack was aimed towards Israeli “strategic centers” as a retaliation to an Israeli air strike last week which killed two of its members.

Reuters asked the Baghdad government what Israeli sites it was referring too. The Iranian embassy in Baghdad did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment about the IRGC’s reference of Israeli strategic centers. It denied that any Israeli locations were on the territory of Erbil.

Experts and officials said that the Israeli murder of IRGC members in Syria may have been the catalyst for the Erbil attack. However, the US and its Arab Gulf allies as well as Iraqi leaders warned by the invasion. They are threatening to create a government which excludes Tehran’s main allies in Baghdad.

Professor Toby Dodge of London School of Economics said, “You’ve got three factors going on here.”

There’s also the JCPOA, which is a nuclear agreement between Iran and Israel, and tit-fortat fighting among the U.S. and Iranians. Now, there’s the formation of the Iraqi government. “So you are sending several messages.”

The commander of an Iran-aligned Iraqi militia claimed Israel was the main target but admitted that it could have been more. This was clearly a signal that Iran is willing to escalate, should Iran feel threatened.

It’s a signal to Israel and other countries that they will respond with missiles to any attack,” said the commander. He declined to give his name because he isn’t authorized to address the media.

PROXIES

Israel increased its attack against the IRGC in the region and its proxies with 15 strikes in Syria’s regional ally Iran in the past one year. Nine of these were conducted in the four-months that followed, according to a Reuters count.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia forces have attacked U.S. targets regularly in the recent years. This includes its force of approximately 2,000 troops that were deployed to Syria and Iraq to defeat remnants Islamic State.

Washington also killed Qassem Solimani in Baghdad, 2020. Iran responded by firing a missile at a U.S.-held base in Iraq. It was its most direct attack on the United States.

The Russian demanded that Tehran withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal has thrown off track Washington’s efforts to revive talks. This would have provided much-needed sanctions relief.

They could lead to Tehran developing nuclear weapons. If it chooses, this would be a disaster for the region. Tehran claims it never sought out atomic bombs.

Iran has been widely suspected to have used military pressure in order to get leverage for previous rounds. Washington stated Monday that it is up to Washington, to revive a deal.

Did the Iranians consider all of these things when they launched the missiles?” “I’m not sure about that. The Israel incident was the trigger,” Lahib Higel (senior Iraqi analyst, International Crisis Group) said.

Higel stated that there were many other factors involved, such as Russia’s demands for the JCPOA.

IRAQI SHI’ITE RIVALS

Iran’s enemies in Iraq have used the strike to warn them during sensitive negotiations over the creation of a government after the October general elections.

This election was won by Moqtada Al-Sadr, an influential Shi’ite Muslim leader and opposes Iranian influence. He is also the main rival of Shi’ites who are aligned to Iran.

Sadr, who threatened Iran-backed parties from government, has formed an alliance both with the Kurdish Democratic Party which runs Erbil and Sunni Arab organizations.

Sadr made a Twitter statement (NYSE:) Sunday stating that the Erbil attack had targeted Iraqi Kurds. He also pledged to continue his “national majority government”, which is a term for an independent government from Iranian influence.

Sadr’s political office senior officials said Sadr’s plans would exclude Iranian Shi’ite allies government for first time since the 2003 invasion by the U.S. that overthrew Saddam Hussein.

The official stated that the missiles sent a warning to Sadr to avoid breaking off with Shi’ites or aligning yourself to a side with Israel. This refers to Kurds, who for many decades have maintained discreet relations with Israel.

Because Sadr’s movement forbids media from participating in government negotiations, the official spoke under anonymity.

Dodge claimed that Iran’s message was dangerous and bold. That Iraq would be the one to bear any additional violence. He said that Iran’s enemies would try to retaliate towards Tehran and its proxies.

“You are back in this cycle of tit-fortat.” It’s all more instability for Iraq, whatever happens next.”