Citi Isn’t Ruling Out Natural Gas at $100 in a Frigid Winter By Bloomberg
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(Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc. more than doubled its Asian and European forecasts for next quarter and said prices could surge to as high as $100 per million British thermal units in the event of a particularly cold winter.
As a result of low European inventories and booming Chinese demand, the prices for liquefied natural gas are on the rise. There is also a bid war to purchase the feedstock to power the generation plants before winter. Japan-Korea has seen its marker price jump almost 50% to nearly $30 per mmBtu. In Europe, LNG prices have increased around 40% to just about $25. The U.S. has seen less price gains.
Average prices next quarter will be moderately higher than current levels in Citi’s base case, the bank said in the note. There are still likely to be price rises. If unusually cold weather increases demand or hurricanes affect supplies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, cargoes can trade between $100 and $580 per barrel.
See also: China Begins Winter Gas Buying Spree at the Worst Possible Time
“Global natural gas prices could continue to go parabolic in the coming weeks and months,” Citi analysts said in the note. “Strong demand and a lack of supply response have sharply tightened the market. Any surprise demand surge or supply disruptions could propel price further upward.”
The ripple effects from the surge in gas prices into other fuels also look wider than initially thought, Citi said. The bank stated that the switch to liquefied petroleum gasoline for heating would have an effect on naphtha as well as gasoline. It also said that there will be more kerosene use which will impact jet fuel and diesel prices. However, fuel oil will have a greater role in power generation. However the LNG rally will fade — prices could drop 70% by the third quarter of next year from this winter’s levels, the bank said.
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