German voters are known to favor stability over charismatic leadership, with Merkel in power for 16 years and presiding over what many Germans have seen as the country’s “golden age.”

This preference to be in control is evident in Olaf Scholz (the SPD’s candidate as chancellor), who has served as Germany’s finance Minister and vice-chancellor under the current government.

The other candidates for chancellor — the CDU-CSU’s Armin Laschet and the Green Party’s Annalena Baerbock — have seen more mediocre successes during their election campaigns with both of them hit by several controversies and questions over their suitability to lead.

A disappointing campaign trail, and a poor performance on the public platform have caused Laschet’s ratings to plummet. His public image was not helped by being caught laughing while he visited a German city that had been devastated by floods. He later regretted it.

Although Merkel attempted to revive Laschet’s prospects of becoming president, three debates on TV between the main candidates failed to produce a significant change in the popularity of CDU-CSU.

The 2021 vote is again more unpredictable for a variety of factors, such as the split in the votes that signals no obvious winner, and the amount of mail-in votes expected this year.

Deutsche Welle reported that although mail-in voting had been common before the pandemic, election organizers now expect up to 50% of those ballots. This is an increase from 28% in 2017, which was due to the Covid-19 situation.

It is certain that there will be a coalition government and no single party can win enough seats to rule. Analysts spent months deliberating about the possible form of a new coalition government, as well as whether CDU-CSU might find itself in opposition. Any coalition talks will take several weeks or even months.

In a Wednesday note, Carsten Nickel (deputy director of research at Teneo Intelligence) stated that each of the major parties (the SPD/CSU and CDU/CSU), could create a coalition together with the Greens or the centre-right Liberals.

“A left-of-center government of SPD, the Greens, and the post-communist Left (Die Linke) – and perhaps even another grand coalition of SPD and CDU/CSU – might also be possible numerically, but will not be the first choice,”

“Party leaderships will assess the official results in meetings on Monday morning, formally offering exploratory talks to potential coalition partners. Due to the potential need for a three-way alliance, these talks and subsequent negotiations could take many weeks. Nickel pointed out that, as with 2017, coalition negotiations might still be unsuccessful at some point. This would require the searching for alternate combinations.

Factors to watch will be whether the slight improvement in the polls for CDU-CSU turns into some last-minute momentum on election day, Nickel said, as well as how the Greens fare.

Annalena Bärbock has slipped back to third, but she’s given solid performances on the television debates. She presented herself as an alternative candidate to the male candidates. This, combined with the high expected turnout via postal ballot and in cities, could make the Greens’ results surprise.

As for the economy, Europe’s largest, whoever takes the helm at the chancellery will have challenges on their hands, Barclays’ Macro Research Analyst Mark Cus Babic noted Thursday.

The economy is recovering well and we believe the outlook for the future remains strong, regardless of how the election results play out. But, there are key risks such as supply disruptions and pandemic savings. There are still many challenges. “The new government’s approach to these issues will determine the outlook for medium term,” he stated.

“Germany faces key challenges such as implementing and paying for the green transition, the need for digital transformation, a rapidly ageing population, sluggish productivity growth, and reliance on exports, including to China.”

Cus Babic said that Germany’s ability to remain the European economic engine will be determined by the economic policies implemented by the next German government. With polls suggesting that the new German government would likely be a 3-party coalition, Cus Babic noted that there is high uncertainty regarding the outcome. The economic policy agenda of this coalition will be determined during coalition negotiations. First consequences will occur in 2023.