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China military activity near Taiwan ups military accident risks: Eurasia

An analyst at Eurasia Group said that Beijing’s military activities near Taiwan are a warning for the U.S. to not deepen their relationship.

Taiwan reported increasing breaches of its air defense zoneChinese warplanes have been seen in the area recently. The island said there were 148 Chinese air force planes in the southern and southwestern part of the zone in the four days since Friday — when China marked its National Day.   

These activities raise the possibility of a Taiwan Strait military accident, however, the likelihood of an armed conflict in the future years remains very low, according to Neil Thomas, Eurasia Group’s analyst for China and Northeast Asia.

We believe they are less provocations that could lead to conflict and more of a warning device Beijing uses to alert Washington and Taipei.

Neil Thomas

analyst, Eurasia Group

The Taiwan Strait — which is only about 100 miles wide (160 km) at its narrowest point — separates Taiwan and mainland China.

Beijing: The Chinese Communist Party is claiming Taiwan, an autonomous democratic island under its control, as a rebel province. must be reunited with the mainland — by force if necessary. Taiwan has not been controlled by the CCP.

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“Our analysis is that they’re less provocations designed to lead toward some kind of conflict, and much more a signaling device that Beijing uses to warn both Taipei and Washington — as well as other western capitals — from deepening their ties with each other and from crossing Beijing’s red lines,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” Wednesday.

These are red lines that include Taiwan declaring independence and the U.S. changing their “one China” policy. It doesn’t have a position about Taiwanese Statehood. Thomas added.

U.S. Support for Taiwan

The Biden administration has taken up the Trump administration’s place in Taiwan policy.

Neil Thomas

analyst, Eurasia Group

Although the U.S. does not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, relations between the two sides have grown closerIn the past few years. This has angered China who considers Taiwan to be without rights to engage in diplomacy at the international stage.

Thomas said that Washington recognizes the necessity to increase its diplomatic, economic and military resources to stop Beijing taking actions to alter Taiwan’s “defacto autonomy”.

According to the analyst, “We have seen the Biden Administration take up where Trump left off in Taiwan policy.”   

He stated that U.S. government officials have made it more convenient for them to meet Taiwanese counterparts. Additionally, he advocated Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations that don’t require Taiwanese citizenship for membership.  

In May, the Group of Seven advanced economies — which includes the US. — wanted Taiwan to be allowed to participate in forums by the World Health Organization.

U.S. President Joe BidenOn Tuesday, he said that he had spoken with Chinese Xi JinpingThey agreed to “abide by the Taiwan agreement,” reported Reuters. The report stated that Biden was referring to Taiwan Relations Act (one China) and to China’s “one China” policies.

The Taiwan Relations Act makes clear that the U.S. decision to establish diplomatic ties with Beijing — instead of Taipei — rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means.  

Mike Robinson
Mike covers the financial, utilities and biotechnology sectors for Street Register. He has been writing about investment and personal finance topics for almost 12 years. Mike has an MBA in Finance from Wake Forest University.