Four stand-out points in the September U.S. jobs report By Reuters
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By Dan Burns
(Reuters) – For a second straight month, U.S. job growth proved to be bitterly disappointing in September https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-job-growth-slows-sharply-september-unemployment-rate-falls-48-2021-10-08, coming in more than 300,000 jobs short of what many economists had penciled in. This is after August’s initial report showed that nearly half of the estimated 1,000,000 jobs were not in fact what economists had expected.
But the 41-page Bureau of Labor Statistics report https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf features a vast range of data on the U.S. job market, and there is plenty of fodder for both the glass-half-full and glass-half-empty camps.
So it’s no surprise that President Joe Biden joined the first group. “Jobs up, wages up, unemployment down. He said that it was “progress” after the publication of his report.
These are the four most notable data points.
Graphic: U.S. unemployment rate drops in September https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/movanjmejpa/chart.png
ROPS UNEMPLOYMENT TATE
For the third consecutive month, unemployment rates fell. This was much higher than expected. At 4.8% it’s now 10 points lower than its peak in April 2020. While economists are unanimous in admitting that it’s not a good indicator of labor market health, it’s still a significant part of both average people’s and policymakers’ estimations of the economy’s state of affairs. It is also improving at an unprecedented pace after previous recessions. The latest level actually is higher than what Federal Reserve balance officials had predicted it would be by the end of this year.
Graphic: A record drop in the long-term unemployed https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/mopanjmxjva/chart.png
NO MORE THAN $300 A WEEK
This superlative, out of all the others in the September report was the best: 560,000 long-term unemployment people left those rolls last month. How come? The answer is simple – there was no money. The federal Supplement to Standard State Jobless Benefits, $300 per Week, expired at the end of the month. The federal emergency program has been ineffective since early summer, when 26 predominantly Republican-led States ended its benefits. The final cull took place last month. Now the question is: How many of these people will be able to return to the workforce in the coming months?
Graphic: Could there be a new U.S. system of wage growth? https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/byprjroznpe/chart.png
WAGE INFLATION
Anecdotes of employers encouraging people to return to work for higher salaries are plentiful. However, given the noise in the data during the coronavirus epidemic, it was difficult finding any evidence of a true trend. However, the Labor Department has seen an improvement in hourly earnings over the last half year, and it seems that a new, and more stable, growth pattern is emerging. Last month’s average hourly earnings rose by 0.6%, again exceedingly high expectations. The last six months have seen an average gain of 0.5% each month. It’s about twice as much wage growth per month that existed before the pandemic.
Graphic: It’s the season! https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/movanjnmjpa/chart.png
SUMMER ADJUSTMENTS
In comparison to a previous year when vaccines were in their development stages, this year saw schools open in much greater numbers. Many public schools also launched a year of fully or hybrid online education. So, why was public school employment down by 144,000 this month? The answer is no. This is due entirely to seasonal adjustments. With roughly 850,000 additional jobs created each school year, September is the best month to be hiring in U.S. public education. After the pandemic, September’s job growth in public schools fell to 15-20%. This is a major change from the Labor Department’s seasonal adjustment models.
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