(Fixes date)

Arriana McLymore, Siddharth Cavale

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Season’s greetings from your favorite retailer come with a 2021-style postscript. 

You are looking for the perfect gift to surprise your friend? This item may not be in stock. The hot toy is also possible. The hot toy may not be delivered in time for Christmas.

Americans collectively are expected to spend as much as $1.3 trillion this holiday season https://www.reuters.com/world/the-great-reboot/amid-supply-chain-snarls-retailers-pitch-early-holiday-shopping-2021-10-01, up from $1.19 trillion in 2020, according to Deloitte. Retailers are preparing for shortages in inventory, increased warehouse costs, and rising prices. 

They encourage shoppers to get out their credit cards early in the year and instill fear in them by emphasizing what retails call “supply chain challenges”, “longer delivery time” or “lower inventories” in marketing materials.

Surf- and skateboard-wear retailer Zumiez (NASDAQ:) Inc’s website features a banner that reads: “Don’t let out-of-stock items and shipping delays screw up your plans.” This mall-based retailer sources its merchandise mainly from Asia, Mexico, and Central America. It didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nordstrom (NYSE:), which typically brings in about 20% of its merchandise from China, on Thursday sent a holiday marketing email to customers citing “global supply chain challenges” that they said would likely put a damper on holiday shopping plans.

“We’re anticipating that the hottest gifts may sell out on our site and that shipping could take longer than we’d all like,” Nordstrom President Peter Nordstrom and CEO Erik Nordstrom said in a joint emailed message to customers. Nordstrom declined comment.

According to surveys conducted by consultancy firms, shoppers previously indicated that they were concerned about stock availability. They even mentioned seeing empty shelves back in August. Sensormatic Solutions surveyed Americans in August and found that half said they planned to start holiday shopping by November. However, the survey did not show any evidence of panic buying.

The president of work-apparel retailer Carhartt told shoppers in an email Wednesday that it is aware of “longer delivery times and lower inventories,” and its own “inaccurate product availability” problems: “Now that fall is on the horizon, it’s time to start thinking about the holidays….we encourage you to get your order in soon for the best possible on-time delivery,” Linda Hubbard said.

Carhartt’s clothes are made in the United States and in Mexico. The company refused to comment.

All retailers are under pressure from supply logjams, but particularly those that — Best Buy Co (NYSE:) , Gap’s Old Navy and Bed, Bath & Beyond — that get much of their merchandise from manufacturers based in Asia and that tend to bring in the products on ships through Southern California ports https://www.reuters.com/world/us/americans-may-not-get-some-christmas-treats-white-house-officials-warn-2021-10-12.

The Marine Exchange of Southern California reported that more than 60 container vessels at Los Angeles or Long Beach docks could not load holiday cargo on October 11th, because of labor shortages, equipment and truck drivers. 

Best Buy’s Chief Executive Corie Barry  said in August that unprecedented demand could result in  “some level of inventory constraints” for the rest of the year,  adding that it has been  harder to get items such as home theaters and large appliances.

Electronics chain Best Buy stated that it expected to offer less holiday promotions this year than the previous two years, even though they were higher last year. Best Buy’s spokesperson declined to give details. 

PEAK DAY, EVERYDAY

“The declining popularity of Black Friday, coupled with consumers starting their holiday shopping early, means that retailers and brands need to engage consumers throughout the season,” Jill Standish, head of Accenture’s Retail Group said.

Retailers must operate at their peak every day.

Officials from the White House, who are trying to alleviate global supply problems that choke U.S. ports and highways, have warned Americans they may see higher prices and empty shelves during Christmas.

Walmart’s Sam’s Club said Friday it is offering more holiday events and holding them earlier in fall compared to 2020. Many analysts believe they will see fewer doorbuster prices than normal in future holiday seasons, as retailers may have less merchandise.

“There will be very limited supply behind those bigger discounts,” said Kristin McGrath, a shopping expert at deals tracking website BlackFriday.com.