Wednesday was a sobering day for the International Energy Agency. They warned that progress in clean energy is still “far too slow” to bring global carbon emissions down into a sustained decline toward net zero.

Paris-based World Energy Outlook 2021 was published. The organization’s remarks were made in an announcement. This wide-ranging report was published as the world prepares for the COP26 Climate Change Summit in Glasgow, Scotland. It will be held between Oct. 31 & Nov. 12.

According to the IEA, although electric vehicle sales set new records for 2020 while renewables like wind and photovoltaic saw rapid growth in their popularity, each data point demonstrating the speed of energy change can be countered with another illustrating the persistence of the status quo. Photovoltaic is a method of directly turning sunlight into electricity.

In a sign of how much work needs to be done, the WEO described how a “rapid but uneven economic recovery from last year’s Covid‐induced recession” had put significant strains on the energy system. These had led to “sharp price increases in natural gas and coal markets.”

The report stated that despite all of the advancements made in renewable energy and electric mobility, 2021 sees a significant rebound in oil and coal use. “Largely for this reason, it is also seeing the second‐largest annual increase in CO2 emissions in history.”

There are many challenges ahead

It examines a variety of scenarios as it relates to looking forward. It also includes its Stated Policies Scenario where almost all the growth in energy demand until 2050 can be met by sources with low emission.

Although the above may sound promising, the IEA warns that it would result in yearly emissions roughly at today’s level. “As a result, global average temperatures are still rising when they hit 2.6 °C above pre‐industrial levels in 2100.”

The Announced Promises Scenario is another outlook that examines what might happen if all the zero net commitments made to date by the governments were implemented in full.

Under this scenario, challenges remain, according to the WEO: “The global average temperature rise in 2100 is held to around 2.1 °C above pre‐industrial levels, although this scenario does not hit net zero emissions, so the temperature trend has still not stabilised.”

Over both COP26, and the IEA report, the shadow of Paris Agreement still hangs. It was signed at the COP21 summit on December 2015.

The United Nations describes the agreement as an internationally binding treaty on climate change. It aims “to limit global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius) compared to preindustrial levels”.

This is a huge challenge. The United Nations noted 1.5 degree Celsius as the “upper limit” for avoiding severe consequences of climate change.

Referencing the current trajectory of CO2 emissions, the U.N. states that “temperature could increase by as much as 4.4°C by the end of the century.”

Fatih Birol (IEA executive director) commented on the newly released report. “The stubborn incumbency fossil fuels in the energy system is putting an end to the world’s enormously positive clean energy momentum.”

Birol explained that the governments need to address this issue at COP26. They must send a clear, unmistakeable signal they are determined to accelerate the development of clean and resilient technology in the future.

Accelerating clean energy transitions has enormous social and economic benefits. Inaction will result in huge costs.