Japan Sept output likely fell as supply disruptions hit automakers: Reuters poll -Breaking
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© Reuters. Workers wearing masks protect their faces at work in the automotive assembly line. This is as the manufacturer ramps up production and implements new security measures to ensure that the plant can reopen after the outbreak of coronavirus disease, COVID-19, at Kawa.By Kantaro Komiya
TOKYO (Reuters – Japan’s industrial output declined in September because of supply chain problems that continue to plague automakers. This poll by Reuters supports the notion that Japan’s third-largest economic country will see a sharp decline in growth during the third quarter.
Recent headaches caused by rising commodity prices, and China’s weak recovery, have adversely affected Japanese exporters, according to analysts.
Takeshi Minami is chief economist of Norinchukin Research Institute.
According to a Reuters survey of 14 economists, September’s industrial output is expected to fall 3.2% month-on-month.
A separate poll indicated that September retail sales fell 2.3% from last year, after a fall of 3.2% in August.
“Consumer sentiment picked-up to some extent after (COVID-19), but supply limit-induced weakness car sales worked as an upward pressure,” Takumi Takumi Tsunoda senior economist, Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.
This batch of poor data highlights the problems that Fumio Kirishida, new prime minister of Japan’s ruling party, will face before the general election scheduled for Oct. 31.
On Oct. 28, at 8:50 AM, the government will publish retail sales data (2350GMT Oct. 27), and industrial output figures (Oct. 29, at 8:50 AM, 2350GMT Oct. 29). 28.
Japan’s unemployment data are expected to reveal a 2.8% rate of unemployment in September. The poll also showed a 1.14 ratio for job applicants. These numbers were roughly unchanged since August.
Tokyo’s consumer prices index (CPI), which is a major indicator of national price inflation, rose 0.3% in Oct from last year and was up 0.1% from the month before.
On Oct. 29, the jobs and Tokyo CPI data (23330GMT on Oct. 28) will be published.
Japan’s economy has emerged from its last-year’s recession as strong exports outweighed some weakness in consumer consumption. Analysts now predict that the economy will grow by 0.8% annually in July-September, down from 1.9% in April and June. This is partly due to a softening of factory output.
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