Jan Strupczewski & Gavin Jones

ROME (Reuters – Leaders of 20 countries in the Group of 20 will claim they will limit global warming to the 1.5 degree Celsius mark scientists have deemed necessary to prevent disasters. However, they will largely avoid making firm commitments to do so, according to a draft statement Reuters obtained.

While the statement is a result of difficult negotiations, it does not include concrete measures to curb carbon emissions.

“We remain committed to the (2015) Paris Agreement goal to hold the global average temperature increase well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels,” the draft says.

In the statement, the leaders also acknowledged “the crucial relevance” to achieving net zero carbon emissions before the end of the century.

Experts at the United Nations say this goal is necessary to reach the 1.5 degree limit on global warming. However, some of the largest polluters in the world have yet to commit to it.

China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses and has established a target for 2060.

The Fifth Draft does not appear as though it has improved the language regarding climate action over previous versions. However, in certain areas, it seems to have softened it slightly.

BIG EMITTERS

The role of the G20 is crucial ahead of a broader U.N. climate summit https://www.reuters.com/business/cop known as “COP26” to be held in Glasgow, Scotland next week involving almost 200 countries.

G20, Brazil, China India, Germany, and the United States together account for over 80% each of the global gross domestic product (GDP), 60 percent of its total population, and 80% of all of the planet’s greenhouse gas emissions.

“Keeping 1.5°C within reach will require meaningful and effective actions by all countries,” the latest draft says.

This compares to a draft that stated “immediate actions” in a prior draft. It is a reflection of the lengthy discussions about language involved with climate diplomacy.

This latest draft refers to the importance to reach net zero emissions by mid-century, replacing a prior version that was more specific at “by 2050”. It was placed in brackets to indicate that it needed negotiation.

While the draft confirms that there will be an increase in national efforts to reduce emissions, it does not provide any details on what steps should be taken.

U.N. experts believe that the world will experience global warming of 2.7% by 2050, even if all national plans are implemented.

This draft contains a promise to stop funding overseas coal-fired generation power by the end this year and to do our best to prevent the building of new coal power plants in the 2030s. These commitments and another pledge to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies were made in earlier drafts.

The G20 leaders have also stated that they would “strive significantly to reduce our collective methane emission”. Global warming can be influenced by methane, which has a more powerful, but shorter-lasting impact than carbon dioxide.

For the G20 Summit and Glasgow summits to succeed, it will depend on the willingness of wealthy nations to fund the transition to greener countries. This is known as “climate finance”.

The 2009 pledge by rich countries to finance climate change was for $100 billion. However, the promises have not been kept. There has been mistrust in some developed nations and resistance to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.

The latest G20 draft states that “We emphasize the importance to fulfill the collective commitment of the developed countries to mobilise USD 100 million annually from private and public sources up to 2025 in order to meet the needs of developing nations, within the context of meaningful mitigation measures and transparency on implementation.”

Retroactive payments of money that was promised in 2020 are not mentioned. However, activists and some countries developing nations believe this is necessary.