Valerie Volcovici and Kate Abnett

(Reuters) – It will take a lot of work to make a final evaluation of progress made during the two-week-long COP26 negotiations in Glasgow. This summit will not, as in past climate summits have done, deliver either a new agreement or one major “win” unlike other events.

It will instead try to achieve a multitude of smaller victories, starting with the U.N. formal negotiations on Paris Agreement and ending with the announcements by countries, investors, and companies about new climate promises during the conference.

Its success is determined by whether the 1.5C goal can be kept alive together.

This gap is enormous. According to scientists, in order to limit warming below 1.5C, global emissions must fall by 45% between 2010 and 2030. They should also reach zero net by 2050. Current pledges by countries would lead to an increase in emissions of 16% between 2010 and 2030.

COP26 will employ three levers in an effort to guide the world toward 1.5C.

AMBITION

The first is to devise a strategy for countries that will increase their emission reduction promises in the future.

It is almost certain that COP26 won’t deliver sufficient pledges to set the world on the right track for 1.5C. A credible agreement to increase ambition in the next years would be a good way to keep the momentum going.

Denmark and Grenada were given the task of preparing options. Britain is currently considering a proposal that requires countries to return with more ambitious promises as soon as 2023.

British conference hosts have also lined up side-deals for clean cars and coal phasing out. These could be a way to move closer towards the Paris Agreement goals in the absence any new commitments by the largest polluters.

FINANCE

Money is the second lever.

The wealthy confirmed that they have failed to fulfill their 2009 commitment to contribute $100 billion each year by 2020 to climate finance in order to aid poorer countries reduce their carbon emissions, build resilience systems and weather more severe storms, flooding and other adverse climate effects.

This has created anger and mistrust in developing countries and undercut rich nations’ demands that they cut their emissions more quickly. It would take huge investments to decarbonise all aspects of life, from power plants to factories to transportation and agriculture.

COP26 needs to develop a strategy to ensure that $100 billion arrives. The COP26 will begin negotiations to establish a new goal in climate finance for 2025 and rules that ensure rich countries can deliver the money.

A group of world’s most vulnerable countries is demanding that Glasgow begin talks about financing so-called loss and damage – money to offset the increasing costs of climate changes, including crop failures and rising sea levels.

Britain, the COP26 host country has also beckoned from the private sector and is lining-up pledges by banks and investors for billions in clean investments to fill the gap left behind by lagged donations.

Bernstein analyst estimates that there must be $2-4 trillion invested annually in low carbon industries to ensure the world reaches net zero emission levels by 2050. This compares to the $79.6billion that poor countries received in climate finance last year from rich countries.

Economic experts are increasingly acknowledging that the cost of not doing anything – or letting climate change continue unchecked — would be much greater.

RULEBOOK

The third priority of COP26 will be for the negotiators representing the almost 200 countries who signed the 2015 Paris Agreement, to complete the rules for implementing the agreement. It includes the difficult discussions around carbon markets, finance, and setting future climate goals.

“Paris was the engagement party, but now we’re at the wedding, waiting to see if the key countries and corporations are ready to say ‘I do’,” said Greenpeace head Jennifer Morgan.