Mark John, Kate Abnett, and Valerie Volcovici

GLASGOW, (Reuters) – World leaders are expected to descend upon Glasgow, Scotland on Sunday in support of the United Nations COP26 summit. It is billed by the United Nations as a chance for saving the world from the most devastating effects of climate changes.

COP26 has been delayed for a year by the COVID-19 pandemic. It aims to maintain a target of keeping global warming below 1.5C. This limit, scientists claim would protect the world from its most devastating consequences.

To meet this goal, which was agreed to in Paris in 2015 to great fanfare, it will take a boost in political momentum as well as diplomatic heavy-lifting in order to compensate for insufficient action and hollow promises that have characterized much of global climate politics.

Conference attendees must make more bold pledges to cut carbon emissions, secure billions in climate finance and finalize rules for implementation of the Paris Agreement. This agreement was unanimously approved by the almost 200 signatories.

“Let’s be clear – there is a serious risk that Glasgow will not deliver,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) rich nations last week.

“Even if recent pledges were clear and credible — and there are serious questions about some of them — we are still careening towards climate catastrophe https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/uns-guterres-says-g20-must-do-more-climate-address-mistrust-2021-10-29.”

Current pledges by countries to lower their emissions would lead to a global average temperature rise of 2.7C in this century. The UN states that this would accelerate the climate change-related destruction. It would increase the risk of more severe storms and flooding.

Mixed signals have emerged ahead of COP26. Last week’s new promise from China, world’s largest polluter, was dismissed as a miss opportunity. It will shadow the summit for two weeks. Notable announcements were made by Russia and Saudi Arabia.

After four years of President Donald Trump’s absence, it will be a blessing for the U.N. conference to see the United States again.

But like many world leaders, President Joe Biden will arrive at COP26 without firm legislation in place to deliver his own climate pledge as Congress wrangles over how to finance it and new uncertainty https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-supreme-court-hear-bid-curb-federal-power-limit-carbon-emissions-2021-10-29 about whether U.S. agencies can even regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

A draft statement by Reuters indicates that the leaders at G20’s Rome summit this weekend will state they intend to keep global warming below 1.5C. But, they are unlikely to make any commitments.

Although the joint statement is a result of hard negotiations, it does not detail any concrete steps to reduce carbon emissions. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/g20-leaders-try-cap-global-warming-15-degrees-draft-2021-10-30

The G20, which includes Brazil, China, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/britain-not-expecting-chinas-xi-glasgow-un-envoy-2021-10-28 India, Germany and the United States, accounts for about 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions, but hopes the Rome meeting might pave the way to success in Scotland have dimmed considerably.

SHADOW OF COVID-19

To add to the geopolitical challenges, China has turned to polluting coal in order to avoid power shortages. Europe is now looking for more fossil fuels like gas.

Negotiations will ultimately boil down to trust and fairness between wealthy countries, whose greenhouse gas emission caused climate change and the poor, who are asked to decarbonise with inadequate financial support.

COVID-19 is a factor that has increased the gap between poor and rich. Some representatives of the least developed countries are unable to attend because they lack travel restrictions and vaccines.

Another obstacle – including the skyrocketing hotel prices in Glasgow – has sparked concerns that under-represented civil society groups representing poor nations, which are most vulnerable to global warming.

COVID-19 is a unique U.N. conference as it will host 25,000 participants from government, corporations, civil society and indigenous peoples.

Each day, everyone must be able to communicate with others and show a positive COVID-19 result.

Anyone who tests positive should be kept in quarantine for a minimum of 10 days. If they do not, it could lead to them missing the majority of the conference.

Two days of speeches by world leaders are scheduled to kick off COP26 Monday. These speeches could contain new pledges for reducing emissions. Then technical negotiators will discuss the Paris agreement rules. It is possible that any agreement will be made hours, or even days, after the Nov. 12, event ends.

Tens of thousands of people are expected to demonstrate outside for climate action.

The complex task of assessing progress is difficult. This summit will be different from previous climate summits. It won’t offer a “win”, but it will seek to achieve smaller victories but still vital on climate finance, investment, emission reductions and climate finance.

The ultimate measure of success is whether these deals make enough progress towards the 1.5C goal, which remains a distant dream.

In 2015, the Paris Agreement was signed. Since then scientists have warned that 1.5C is not possible. Global emissions must fall by 45% between 2010 and 2030, reaching net zero by 2050. This will require major changes in the systems of transportation, energy production and agriculture. The current commitments of countries will see the global emission rise by 16% in 2030.

Christiana Figueres (an ex-U.N. climate diplomat) said that “there is a meteor coming towards our planet and this has the very real potential to wiping out mankind.”