Frank Luntz, a GOP pollster and strategist, forecast Tuesday that Republican Glenn Youngkin will defeat Democrat Terry McAuliffe during Virginia’s tight gubernatorial race. It sets up a shaky Midterm Season for President. Joe BidenHis party will be next year.

CNBC’s CNBC News “Squawk BoxLuntz indicated that “there’s an approximately 80% chance that Terry McAuliffe is defeated” by Republican nominee. Luntz was the Virginia governor in 2014-2018. Youngkin was a former CEO at a private equity firm. The Carlyle Group

Luntz said that the incumbent was the Democrat and that it looked like the incumbent would lose. The incumbent governor of Virginia, Ralph Northam (Democrat), cannot run because they can’t each serve more than one term.

Politicians and pollsters look at Virginia to predict the outcome of the midterms when the U.S. House of Representatives is up for grabs.

Luntz stated that there have been “four times” when the party on the outside has won the House over the incumbents. This was four times in 50 years. 100% Virginia predicts the outcome every time, so everyone’s closely watching.

Both chambers of Congress have a slim majority for Democrats.

Luntz stated that Biden’s favorable ratings in Virginia are declining fast, however they are not as low than the former President. Donald TrumpThe numbers. According to the pollster, this isn’t necessarily a vote for Trump or Biden.

Former President Biden Barack Obama have campaigned for McAuliffe. Youngkin, on the other hand, has avoided all visits to his campaign offices from prominent Republicans including Trump. Both approaches have not really made a difference.

According to Luntz Virginia is only 3% Democratic, so the outcome could come down to turnout. Early voting results in the commonwealth hit record highsBefore Tuesday’s election. About a fifth (or 5.9 million) of Virginia’s electorate cast their early ballots in 2017, nearly six times the number than 2017.

Luntz said that Democrats will be able to use their defeat against progressive policy if Republicans are elected. Biden’s spending bills may still be passed, but the price is lower than what progressives would prefer, Luntz said.

Luntz, despite Tuesday’s results or 2022’s midterms said in the “SquawkBox” interview that “If you’re watching this program, chances are you’re going to be paying more taxes within 12 months.”

Luntz stated that “it’s not going be confiscatory.” While there won’t be any destruction of estates, savings or small businesses in Virginia if Republicans win, there will be an increase in tax.

He added that Americans could still look forward to an infrastructure package or social spending programs. It won’t seem as drastic as it could have been.