Stock Groups

Emerging central bank rate hikes will bolster local debt, weigh on stocks

[ad_1]

© Reuters. A view of the exterior showing Russia’s Central Bank Headquarters in Moscow, Russia. March 29, 2021. Sign reads “Bank of Russia” REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Files

LONDON (Reuters] – While central banks in the developing world will raise interest rates, this will support emerging market debt, and act as a buffer from tightening policies by the U.S. Federal Reserve. But it could also spell trouble for equities.

Wei Li, chief investment strategist and global chief of BlackRock Investment Institute (the world’s biggest asset manager), stated that central banks in emerging countries have raised interest rates to control inflation and stop their currencies depreciating rapidly.

The rates of interest have risen in the last few months by central banks across developing countries, including Brazil and South Korea.

The weighted average policy rate across all emerging markets included in JPMorgan’s GBIEM global diversified index is 3.2%. It will rise to under 5% within a year. BlackRock calculated this to be close to zero or negative rates for the United States and Euro area. It also indicated that “much of work” is being done in emerging market markets.

BlackRock noted that emerging central bank’s proactive approach was also helping to push growth through the delayed rollout of vaccines.

While this makes us be cautious with EM equities in a global market that’s starved for yield, it does make some EM debt attractive.

BlackRock asserted that the local-currency bond offered the greatest opportunities for fixed income in emerging markets due to its short duration and low sensitivity to increasing rates.

It stated that it gives access to “smaller shares of EM equity indicels such as LatAm.”

Wei Li stated that local currency bonds from higher yielding countries are preferred, with strong current balances.

Disclaimer: Fusion MediaThis website does not provide accurate and current data. CFDs are stocks, futures, indexes or Forex. The prices of Forex and CFDs are provided by market makers and are therefore not necessarily accurate. Fusion Media does not accept any liability for trade losses you may incur due to the use of these data.

Fusion MediaFusion Media and anyone associated with it will not assume any responsibility for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. This includes data including charts and buy/sell signal signals. Trading the financial markets is one of most risky investment options. Please make sure you are fully aware about the costs and risks involved.

[ad_2]