Parisa Hafezi, Francois Murphy, and John Irish

PARIS (Reuters – The world’s powers and Iran will return to Vienna Monday in a desperate attempt to salvage a 2015 nuke deal. But few are expecting a breakthrough, as Iran’s atomic programs continue to rage in an apparent effort to exert pressure on the West.

Diplomats claim that time is short to restart the accord, which was abandoned by President Donald Trump in 2018. This angered Iran and upset the other countries involved: Britain, France, Germany, China, France and Germany.

Between April and June, six rounds of indirect negotiations were held. Following a brief hiatus caused by Ebrahim Rashi, an extremist cleric, being elected Iranian president in June, the new round starts.

Iran’s new negotiation team made demands that U.S. diplomacy and European diplomats considered unrealistic. They insist that any U.S. or EU sanction imposed upon Tehran in 2017 (including those not related to its nuclear programme) be removed.

Parallel to this, Iran’s disputes with the U.N. nuclear watchdog that monitors its nuclear programme have gotten worse. Iran continues to enrich its nuclear programme. The IAEA claims that its inspectors were treated harshly and denied access to the site to install monitoring cameras. This is essential for the renewal of the agreement with the world powers.

According to a Western diplomat who was part of the talks, “They’re doing enough technically so that they can alter their fundamental relationship with the West and be able have a more equal dialog in the future.”

Two European diplomats stated that Iran seemed to be merely playing with time in order to acquire more knowledge and material.

The Western diplomats have stated that Monday’s talks will be held on Monday under the presumption of resuming where they were in June. They warned Iran that it will continue to hold its extreme positions without restoring its cooperation with IAEA.

On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister and top negotiator both reiterated that they would only consider full lifting of sanctions in Vienna.

“If Iran maintains this position Monday night, I do not see any negotiation,” said one European diplomat.

Many diplomats stated that Iran is now four to six weeks from “breakout” time, which it will need to accumulate enough fissile materials to make a nuclear weapon. However they warned it it would still be about two years before it can weaponize it.

If the talks fail, it is likely that the United States along with its allies will confront Iran next month at the IAEA by calling for an urgent meeting.

As they begin to explore other diplomatic options, however, they will be keen to retain Russia’s political influence over Iran and China. China provides Iran with economic breathing room through its oil purchases.

Diplomats believe Washington may have suggested that an interim agreement with Tehran be negotiated, but it must remain open to negotiation until a permanent one is reached. They say it will take time, and Iran doesn’t have the desire for it.

Henry Rome, Eurasia analyst said that Iran may be calculating that unconstrained nuclear advancements and unmonitored production of centrifuges will increase pressure on the West for concessions quickly.

It will probably have the opposite effect signaling that the Iranian new team doesn’t have an interest to resolving nuclear issues and hastening the transition towards a coercive strategy next year.”