By Mark Trevelyan

(Reuters] – Ukraine’s armed force is heavily outnumbered by Russia and outgunned, but can put up a resistance that could force Vladimir Putin to give up his presidency for any future invasion.

Western military analysts claim that Ukraine’s army has better training and equipment than the 2014 Russian invasion of the Crimean peninsula.

They believe it is highly unlikely that Putin will contemplate an invasion of Ukraine.

“We will not see a giant, red arrow moving across Ukraine. Ben Hodges is a former lieutenant general of the U.S., now working with the Center for European Policy Analysis. “I do not think that the Russians are capable to completely overrun Ukraine, and take over all the country,” he said.

He and other experts suggested that Russia could push to the south and west of Ukraine’s Donbass, which is already under control by pro-Russian forces, in order to connect with annexed Crimea or the Black Sea. However, even this less ambitious objective might result in large Russian casualties.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s arms expert, Siemon Wezeman said that any Russian invasion will be a far more difficult task than the one it faced in Chechnya during the 1990s, or its brief war against Georgia in 2008.

It can defeat the Ukrainian high-ranking forces. But, it is not possible to invade a country such as Ukraine, with its population clearly hostile to you. The Ukrainian people are armed to their teeth and most men have some basic military training. It’s going to an area which is Chechnya multiplied with 10, or Georgia multiplied again by 30, he stated.

It’s not going be easy. As Russian President, you will have to explain to Russian citizens that your stupid support for the Donbass rebels has resulted in 10,000 deaths. It won’t resonate well with Russia, I think.

Ukraine claims 92,000 Russian troops are gathered at its border, while the United States says a Russian invasion of the country by forces as large as 175,000 may occur in January.

Moscow claims it is not threatening its neighbor and says it has the right to move its troops wherever it pleases on its territory. Moscow claims it sees threats from Ukraine’s increasing ties to NATO, which Kyiv wants to become one day. It is asking for security guarantees from Western countries to end the crisis.

NAUNTING NUMBERS

Ukraine’s arithmetic is not good in terms of weapons and manpower.

Russia has a 280,000 strong army, which is twice as large as Ukraine’s. Its total of 900,000.000 armed forces are also more than four times larger. The International Institute for Strategic Studies, London (IISS) says that Russia’s 2,840 combat tanks surpass Ukraine’s army by over three times.

Although Ukraine’s defense budget has tripled in real terms between 2010 and 2020, the total defense expenditures for Ukraine last year was only $4.3billion, which is one-tenth as much Russia.

There is an enormous gap between electronic warfare and air defense. Yohann Michel, an IISS researcher analyst said that it is difficult to imagine how Ukraine would not be totally overwhelmed by the air.

According to him, Russia will seek to make use of its technological superiority and paralyse adversaries’ command and control systems and disrupt communications with field units.

The Ukrainian combat experience gained in Donbass, as well as its short-range anti-tank and air defenses, would slow down any Russian advance.

“It won’t be easy because there are still many (Ukrainian), troops. Michel explained that most of them are motivated so they’ll likely fight till the very end.”

Even if Ukraine was defeated, it could still “open their arms depot”, provide weapons to the populace and make the Russians vulnerable to guerrilla warfare. It would prove difficult for them to retain any captured territories. He stated that he would not like to live in an area that the Russians had seized for six months.

Putin could face reservations from the public regarding his decision to wage war against a Slav country, and also intense anti-Russian sentiments within Ukraine.

Hodges was a former U.S. lieutenant General and said that, while numbers are stacked against Ukraine “as history has shown, war is not about just math”.

“The Ukrainian population is likely to be hostile no matter how far west the Russian forces may go.” He said that this will prove very expensive for Russian forces. “It would be a great reward to have Putin’s own countrymen support him.