BEIJING, (Reuters) – China’s COVID-19 strict policy weighs on foreign consumption, experts claim. However, its effectiveness and imperative to preserve stability as we enter a sensitive year means Beijing will continue to follow its lead, however.

China only reported one COVID-19-related death in 2018. This contrasts with other countries that have eased restrictions or imposed travel curbs.

Avoiding major outbreaks is especially critical in a year when Beijing hosts both the Winter Olympic Games and the once-every-five-years Communist Party Congress, where President Xi Jinping is expected to clinch a third term as party secretary.

Beijing is eager to improve its record in tackling COVID-19. A government white paper referred to it as one of the “most significant achievements” of the model’s governance. It also points out high death rates elsewhere, particularly the United States.

Bank (China’s chief economist Dan Wang said that stability is Bank (China’s number one priority in the next year. Releasing the policy of zero tolerance will not achieve that goal.

Beijing will be strengthened by the rapid rise of Omicron, which has already caused many countries to halt or backtrack on reopening their plans. China reported several Omicron imported cases, and one local transmitted case.

China can’t let the old variant get away from it, Lei Zhenglong of the National Health Commission (NHC) stated Monday.

Beijing, where the Winter Games will begin, is going to be in the spotlight. The October Party Congress on Feb. 4th will provide the political highlight.

ESPN reports that COVID-19 fears have prevented the National Hockey League from sending its players to the Olympics men’s hockey tournament.

Experts have raised concerns about older adults not being vaccinated, and also the effectiveness of vaccines currently in use. The country has yet to accept foreign vaccines like those produced by the United States. Pfizer (NYSE: Moderna (NASDAQ:).

Zheng Zhongwei (another NHC official) stated that 80% of over-60s were vaccinated by November. However, this left approximately 50 million people in the age group – more than Spain’s population.

Peter Wang, an epidemiology professor from Memorial University of Newfoundland (Canada), said that China would be wary of opening its doors soon due to the low efficacy of Chinese vaccines as well as uncertainty about how long they could protect.

The efficacy of the main Chinese vaccines manufactured by Sinopharm or Sinovac was based on clinical trials. It had a range between 50 to 83.5% for the treatment of symptomatic diseases. This is lower than the 95% figure for Moderna and Pfizer shots.

Recent studies have shown that the Omicron variant of Omicron vaccines had a lower antibody response than other versions, however it is not clear how this would impact the overall effectiveness.

SCENARIO WORST CASE

COVID-19 policies have been credited for helping to improve the country’s industry sector. They prevent widespread factory closures and keep the export engine humming.

The country saw a boom in exports due to the rising demand for goods from COVID affected and locked down economies. This drove its growth into 2021. It has achieved double-digit growth each month since then.

Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics’ Asia Economics says any benefit will likely outweigh the cost.

The November retail sales growth was 3.9%, which is well below the pre-pandemic trend. Catering and hospitality have suffered particularly.

Kuijs stated that the current approach to the economy is not a good one. He also noted that countries that are highly vaccinated have adopted a COVID approach to growth, which makes it more resilient to future outbreaks.

Expat workers may be leaving abroad due to concerns about separation from families. Foreign chambers have also reported that it’s difficult to recruit executives or technicians to work in plants and cut deals.

Joerg WUTTE, President of the European Chamber of Commerce China, stated, “In a worse-case scenario we fear that there may not be meaningful changes until late 2022, if even 2023.”

International arrivals have different requirements regarding quarantine, but they are usually at least two weeks long and sometimes longer. In Shenyang in the north, travellers must spend at most four weeks in quarantine. A further month is required for “health management”. During this time, they are strongly advised to not return home.

Major China COVID-19 outbreaks in 2021 https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/CHINA/dwpkrerrdvm/chart.png

Zheng, NHC’s Zheng, stated that China could allow for an unacceptable number of deaths if it loosens its controls without increasing vaccination coverage for the old.

China was the first country to experience the pandemic in central Wuhan. There have been 4,636 reported deaths. That is far less than many countries. It also has a fraction of its population. However, relatively few of the 1.41 billion people living in China are infected.

Hsu Yang, a professor of infectious diseases at the National University of Singapore, says that planning for an increase in case numbers would be key to Beijing’s eventual opening.

Hsu explained that the virus can spread quickly from the moment you are exposed to it. He also suggested that prevention measures, such as separating sick people from the virus, may be needed.

(This article refiles to clarify the number of studies at paragraph 14.)