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Turkish inflation seen above 30% in December amid lira weakness- Reuters poll -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – A merchant checks Turkish lira notes at Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar on March 29, 2019, Turkey. REUTERS/Murad Sezer

ISTANBUL (Reuters – Turkey’s annual inflation rate will reach 30.6% in December according to Reuters. It is above the 30% mark for the first year since 2003 due to rising prices and record lira volatility.

It would mark the most recent high-level forecast from 13 economists at 30.6%. Forecasts ranged between 26.4% to 38.3%.

The lira’s slide to new record lows has driven inflation, currently around 20%, since the central bank cut its policy rate 500 basis points from September under President Tayyip Erdogan.

Median prices increased 9% in the month of March, while other forecasts were between 5.5% and 14.6%.

The central bank stated that temporary factors are driving inflation higher, and predicted that the long-term trend of inflation will be volatile.

Erdogan’s announcement of a plan to safeguard lira deposit against currency volatility, and state-backed markets interventions, triggered a half-point increase in currency value.

Over the last four year, inflation was well above peers from emerging markets and has been at double digits. It has impacted Turks’ earnings while also assisting Erdogan.

The Turk-Is trade union association reported that food prices increased 25.75% in December, compared to November. The increase was 55%, an increase of 27% from November and the biggest rise in food inflation since 1987.

In a late October report, the central bank forecasted that year-end inflation would be 18.4%. End-2021, the government forecasted 16.2% annual inflation.

As lira decline drives prices for food, energy and core goods, December could see double-digit inflation, according to Serkan Gonencler from Gedik Yatirim. Also, price reductions could result from the lira rebound.

He said that although raw materials are more expensive, an increase in the prices of energy and service inflation may limit January’s decline.

“Inflation may follow a rising trend after the delayed FX rate impact after January.”

Answering Reuters’ question, four economists predicted that annual inflation would drop to 24.95% by next year.

On Jan. 3, the Turkish Statistical Institute will announce December inflation data at 7:00 GMT.

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