ISTANBUL (Reuters – Turkey’s annual inflation rate will reach 30.6% in December according to a Reuters survey. It is likely to surpass the 30% mark for the first year since 2003 due to rising prices and record lira volatility.

This would represent the 30.6% median forecast by 13 economists, which is higher than May 2003’s forecasts of 26.4% and 37.3%.

Under pressure from President Tayyip Erdoan, inflation has fallen to around 20% over the past few months. The central bank reduced its policy rate by 500bps since September. This was in response to a plunge in the lira.

Median prices increased 9% in the month of March, while other forecasts were between 5.5% and 14.6%.

According to the central bank, temporary forces were driving up prices and they forecasted that inflation would be volatile in the near future.

Erdogan declared a program to guard lira savings against currency volatility. State-backed market interventions also triggered an immediate 50% increase in currency’s value.

For most of the past four years, inflation has been well over emerging market peers and in double digits for Turkey. This is affecting Turks’ earnings as well as Erdogan’s support.

The Turk-Is trade union association reported that food prices increased 25.75% in December, compared to November. The increase was 55% in December, an increase of 27% in November. This is the biggest rise in food inflation since 1987.

Late October’s report by the central bank showed that 18.4% was its year-end inflation prediction. Inflation of 16.2% was predicted by the government for 2021.

As lira decline drives prices for food, energy and core goods, December could see double-digit inflation, according to Serkan Gonencler from Gedik Yatirim. Also, price reductions could result from the lira rebound.

He said that although raw materials are more expensive, an increase in the prices of energy and service inflation may limit January’s decline.

“Inflation may follow a rising trend after the delayed FX rate impact after January.”

Answering a Reuters Question, four economists predicted that annual inflation would drop to 24.85% in the next year.

On Jan. 3, the Turkish Statistical Institute will announce December inflation data at 7:00 GMT.