Josh Smith

SEOUL (Reuters) – Even as debates swirl over their capability, a series of “hypersonic missiles” recently tested by nuclear-armed North Korea sparked sudden talk of preemptive strikes and arms races amid worry over the vulnerability of U.S. troops and their allies in Asia.

Three missile tests by North Korea in two weeks marked the beginning of the New Year. This sparked reactions in Washington that Washington hadn’t seen since Pyongyang cut off testing its long-range missiles in 2017.

Two of the most recent tests involved what North Korea called “hypersonic rockets”, while information on the third test, which was launched Friday morning, wasn’t immediately available.

The hypersonic weapons, although limited in their reach to the region, do not pose any threat to the United States. The weapons, which are capable of flying below defenses and changing course quickly at high speeds, could be a significant upgrade for North Korea’s fighting power against nearby enemies. Experts say that it is not clear how the U.S. or its Asian allies would counter this.

Cameron Tracy is a Stanford University researcher and CISAC (Center for International Security and Cooperation) analyst. “These kinds of offense-defence races are taking place worldwide for many decades and what we consistently observe is that offence always has the advantage.” North Korea will continue deploying more missiles and developing faster, more maneuverable systems that will make South Korea more vulnerable to attacks.

In recent years the United States and South Korea – hoping to restart stalled talks with Pyongyang – have played down North Korea’s increasingly capable short-range missiles as concerning and a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, but not a standout threat.

The Biden Administration imposed the first sanctions against the North’s nuclear program this week. South Korea’s most prominent presidential candidates debate whether it was possible to prevent the development of these weapons.

They travel at hypersonic speeds, which is similar to most ballistic missiles. However, their main feature is that they can fly and maneuver on lower trajectory than other ballistic missiles. This makes them more difficult to find and to shoot down.

Melissa Hanham is also a researcher with CISAC. She said, “In the worst-case scenario North Korea could launch a missile in a ballistic curvature which makes it seem to be a test in the sea but it then manoeuvres below or around radar systems, and even turns a corner to strike a target, South Korea, or Japan, with a nuke weapon.”

‘BAD NEWS’

Analysts warn that the capabilities of North Korea’s latest systems and when they will become operational are not yet known. According to South Korea, the missile that was tested in this year’s test appears to use a “conical” manoeuvrable and reentry vehicle (MaRV), rather than the high-tech “glider”, as seen on missiles made by China.

Ballistic missile defense (BMD), systems that aim to shoot down missiles are designed to follow the arching, high-flying flight of conventional ballistic projectiles. Many of these missiles touch the edges of space and then return to Earth.

Joshua Pollack, the editor of Nonproliferation Review spoke out about North Korea’s MaRV missiles.

South Korea and approximately 28500 U.S. military personnel based in the area are also close to each other, which means that missiles could be launched from the same spot, making defense harder, according to David Wright, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology nuclear security researcher.

Wright’s research has shown that North Korea could fly on a depressed trajectory, which would allow them to launch their latest missiles at Japan’s defenses. Japan hosts thousands of U.S troops.

A lot of South Koreans are used to the idea that North Korean weapons threaten their lives, however, Japan and the United States can’t afford to ignore North Korea’s advanced programs, according Chun In-bum (a former South Korean general).

“The North Korea hypersonic weapon system will undoubtedly become better,” he said. This is terrible news for all.

PREEMPTIVE STRIKES

South Korea’s Defense Ministry on Thursday stated that they could detect new missiles and also intercept them.

Some candidates for South Korea’s presidency aren’t so certain.

“Missiles that travel at speeds over Mach 5, if they are loaded with nuclear warheads, will reach the Seoul metropolitan area in less than a minute,” leading conservative presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol told reporters on Tuesday. Interception is virtually impossible.

Yoon said that diplomacy is necessary in order to stop wars from happening. Yoon said that diplomacy is not enough to prevent a war from happening. However, Yoon stated that preemptive strikes are necessary in order to prevent an impending launch.

Wright claimed that North Korea does not conceal its missiles so it is impossible to prove that an attack would end the threat.

He stated that “if this vulnerability is a concern (which it should be), the only real response is to negotiate to North Korea to lower the likelihood of such attacks.”