Tom Balmforth

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s deployment of tens of thousands of troops to the north, east and south of Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/expect-worst-ukraine-hit-by-cyberattack-russia-moves-more-troops-2022-01-14 is fuelling fears in Kyiv and Western capitals that Moscow is planning a new attack. Russia has denied any plans to do so.

According to Western military experts, Russia would have to withdraw these troops by the summer because they cannot be left there indefinitely due both logistical and financial reasons.

The numbers of Russian soldiers moving closer to Ukraine range from around 60,000 to about 100,000. A U.S intelligence document suggests that this number could rise to 175,000.

Officials from the United States have indicated that Russia may attack Ukraine by this month. As ground becomes more challenging, it will be easier for tanks to maneuver quickly.

Russia sought security assurances to help defuse the crisis during talks with NATO and the United States this week.

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister said Friday that Moscow is not willing to wait for an answer forever and demanded a written response to all Russian proposals.

However, what would a Russian attack look and accomplish?

“The current deployments have a wide range of capabilities. These deployments keep Russia open to options and keep the defender guessing,” stated Keir Giles (Associate Fellow at Chatham House).

These are just a few possible outcomes.

DONBASS ESCALATION

Since 2014, heavily armed Russian-backed separatists control a large part of eastern Ukraine and exchange fire with Ukrainian government troops despite an agreement in 2015 that stopped major hostilities.

According to Kyiv, 15,000 have been killed in the conflict in Donbass. Russia has denied having any troops stationed in Ukraine for many years.

Russia accused Kyiv, claiming it was planning to take the area by force. Ukraine refutes this accusation.

Russia may use such a situation as a casus belli in a febrile environment.

According to a source, the Russian Defence Ministry thought this would be the best scenario in case Moscow decides to strike. However, he wasn’t aware of such a decision. He said that Kyiv could also be provoked to attack by separatists, who might then request Russia to send soldiers to assist.

According to Neil Melvin (director of International Security Studies, RUSI think-tank, London), Russian forces may expand fighting in Donbass in order to bring Ukraine into a traditional conflict. Moscow might try to capture the Ukrainian coast areas along the Sea of Azov. This would create a landbridge from Rostov to Crimea.

ASSAULT FROM CRIMEA

Russia brought new troops to Crimea. It annexed Ukraine in 2014.

Moscow could strike Ukraine directly from Crimea by seizing territory to the Dnieper River. This could be used as an effective barrier against counter-offensives, according Konrad Muzyka of Rochan, a Polish consultancy.

He said that artillery and missile strikes could be used to strike the Ukrainian south. Special forces might also seize railway crossings or bridges in order for troops and tanks access to these junctions. He said that there are two routes from Crimea that can be blocked or destroyed. This is a weakness.

He said that forces would take control of the canal which provided fresh water supply to Crimea until Russia annexed it and Ukraine cut off the flow.

MULTIFRONT ATTACK

An intelligence document from the U.S. that is publicly accessible said Russia might invade this month, with at least 100 battalion-tactical groups (BTGs), or about 175,000 soldiers. The document stated that about 50 BTGs are already present in Ukraine’s north and east, and Crimea to its south.

Melvin suggested that Kyiv could seize southern Ukraine to cut off NATO’s Black Sea presence, as well as its coast. He also said it could help Russian nationalists who regard the area the historical “Novorossiya”, or “New Russia” areas.

An assault on multiple fronts might include an attack into northeastern Ukraine. It would encircle but possibly not enter cities, where they could become embroiled in urban fighting. Giles suggested that Russian troops could move into Belarus to open a north front for Ukraine which would place Russian forces closer toward Kyiv.

Melvin stated that an invasion would cost the world economically and politically.

According to military analysts, even though Russia’s army is only half that of Ukraine, it could still face resistance from guerrilla-type groups, making it difficult to retain the territory it has captured.

MISSILE STRIKES / CYBER-ATTACK

Giles stated that some situations could include long-range missile strikes or cyber attacks on critical infrastructure. Ukraine’s lower anti-missile defenses would be vulnerable to missile attacks.

He stated that the different ways Russia could persuade West to punish Kyiv are not necessarily based on a land invasion.