By Md Manzer Hussain

BENGALURU (Reuters – According to a Reuters poll, six member economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council will experience their highest growth in several years. This is according to economists at Reuters who warned that this outlook might be skewed toward the downside.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices rose to the highest level since 2014. This was due to escalating tensions between major producers, including Russia and United Arab Emirates, which may worsen already limited supplies.

It is very good news for the six rich oil-exporting country in the region.

A poll of 25 economists was conducted Jan. 11-19 and found that all six Gulf Cooperation Council economies would see growth faster than expected.

Saudi Arabia was expected to be the top-ranked country with growth at 5.7%. Kuwait followed with 5.3%, and UAE with 4.8%.

For 2022, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain were expected to experience an average economic growth of 3%-4 percent. This would represent the highest economic growth these countries could see in many years, if it is realized.

Khatija Haque (head of research, chief economist, Emirates NBD) stated that “despite relatively tight fiscal policies and some external headwinds”, the GCC economies will see greater growth in 2022, as they continue building on last year’s progress.

While the outlook is positive for 2022, there are still uncertainties about the future. This includes the development of the coronavirus panademic.

While the outlook for the price of goods in the region is not as positive, it was still a good indicator that the economy will continue to face persistent inflation.

The expected inflation to remain between 2.2% and 2.8% in 2018 was Oman, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and UAE at 2.0%. Qatar’s reading of 2.8% is the highest.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest exporter of oil and the country’s political and economic heavyweight. This year will witness 5.7% economic growth. It would represent the fastest economic growth rate since 2012, when oil was at an average of $111 per barrel.

Other than an increase in the median forecast from October Reuters, there were also higher highs as well as lower lows.

According to forecasts, UAE will grow at 4.8% in 2018, the fastest growth rate since 2015.

The dependence on energy prices comes with the risk of price disruptions due to geopolitical tensions or a slowdown within the global economy.

A total of nine out 10 economists answered another question and said that a fall in oil prices, as well as new coronavirus varieties, were the greatest threats to GCC economic development this year.

Ralf Wiegert (MENA economics team chief at IHS Markit) stated, “The biggest risk is oil price drops are still for the GCC Region, while supply chains disruptions will continue play a rôle and throw a wrench into worldwide growth, but likely not so much for GCC countries.”

GCC growth has been centered very heavily on the upside. Oil supply and GDP growth are dependent on strong oil demand in 2022.

Eighteen percent of the ten participants said that risks to growth were more towards the downside.

(For more stories, see the Reuters Global Long-Term Economic Outlook Polls Package: