After a wild day for the stock market, should investors be worried?
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Traders in the NYSE Floor, Jan. 24, 2022
Source: NYSE
Monday witnessed one of most volatile trading sessions in years. Dow Jones Industrial AverageThe day ended with a loss of 1,100 points, but a rally followed by a fractionally better performance. Stocks were lowerYou can do it again Tuesday.
“Should you be concerned?”
Many investors have this question in mind.
Investors might be scared by volatility, but experts believe that this is the best time to either get in now or to remain the same.
Kevin Simpson, the chief investment officer and founder of The Simpson Group, was my host. Capital Wealth PlanningFor some help, contact the author of “Walk Toward Wealth”
CNBC: Why are stocks dropping?
Simpson: While corrections are an expected course of market activity, they don’t feel right when you’re there.
Due to mixed earnings from companies and concerns about rising interest rate, stocks are falling.
There are ominous signs in the year’s beginning. These are the new winds. Not only is the Fed raising rates, but they are also not pumping money into our economy. Many of this money is now in the stock market.
CNBC: The S&P 500 dipped into correction territory on Monday. Investors should be concerned
Simpson: A 10% move in the market is not a cause for concern. The Fed has made it easy for us to become very spoiled over the past few years. What’s unusual is how long it’s been between corrections: 5-10% corrections happen very often, about once a year since the end of World War II.
These small declines are usually quickly reversed by the market.
Declines in the S&P 500 since 1946
Decline | Number of decreases | The average recovery time takes months |
---|---|---|
5%-10% | 84 | 1 |
10%-20% | 29 | 4 |
20%-40% | 9 | 14 |
40%+ | 3 | 58 |
Source: Guggenheim
CNBC: Could we see it drop even more?
Simpson: In the short term, what is most important? The Fed’s Wednesday commentary. It is good to know that the Fed now commands the market’s attention. Investors believe the Fed will raise interest rates quickly. The market should be relieved if the Fed just says they’ll be gradually raising rates. It is probable that there will only be 3-4 small increases this year.
CNBC: How should investors act now?
Simpson: Investors who are long-term should understand that they can’t pick a bottom. It is good to start at 10%. Investors can make the biggest error by using these drops as reason to exit the market. While I’m an active manager, retail investors need to continue to hold index funds, such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) – and utilize dollar-cost-averaging.
You shouldn’t try and time the markets. While I have many contacts with successful traders, I do not know any successful investors. Retail investors tend to perform less than professional investors because emotions can override their investment decisions. Keep your eyes on the long-term and stay focused.
CNBC: How much should investors anticipate in return over the next several years?
Simpson: The S&P 500 has seen unusually large gains in the last 12 years since the Federal Reserve began pushing interest rates down while simultaneously pumping money into the economy. It is possible to assume that returns will be lower than average over the next several years, as this trend has now reversed.
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An investor should not expect double-digit returns but single-digit gains. Investors should expect single-digit returns, not double-digit returns.
Key is the earnings. Stocks can rise even if Fed tightening is not aggressive as long as they have growth in earnings.
CNBC: If I’m over 60 years old and I am concerned about a steeper market decline than 10%, should I be doing anything?
Simpson: If your age is over 60, and you consider yourself a conservative investor you need to think about how much risk you accept. For this generation, however 60 is a very old age. The 60-year-olds of today will live into their 90s, which means they can have an extended investment period. You need to hold stocks longer. Your time horizons may not be as long as you believe if you’re 60.
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