Russia willing to go to war and incur sanctions over Ukraine: analysts
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One of the 54th Guards Missile Division’s Teykovo Missile Formation servicemen takes part in anti-sabotage and combat patrols involving RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic-missile systems.
Vladimir Smirnov | TASS | Getty Images
Defense analysts claim that Russia will risk financial damage and war in order to reach its political goals in Ukraine.
Moscow denies that it intends to invade Ukraine’s neighboring country, which is a former Soviet Union part, even though the border has been manned by around 100,000 soldiers.
Russia has demanded that Ukraine be denied membership in NATO and said it would like the NATO to reduce its presence within Eastern Europe.
The U.S. delivered a response to Moscow’s demandsMoscow repeatedly refused to comply with their demands. On Monday, the U.N. Security Council will hold bilateral talks between these two countries.
The British government claimedIt was revealed earlier in the month that there were evidences the Kremlin wanted to place a pro-Russian leader into the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. 2014. Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, a peninsula in the south of UkraineWith an ethnic Russian minority.
CNBC reached out to the Russian government spokesperson but he was unavailable immediately.
There are more steps to take before you invade.
Samuel Cranny Evans is a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute. He believes there’s still time to reach a solution before Russia invades Ukraine.
In a telephone conversation, he said to CNBC that this was not yet an invasion force. Russia has deliberately constructed a lot of infrastructure.” [this situation]We will be able to tell when an invading force is present.
He added that what we have seen so far was “just the first step,” and now that things like air defense assets, convoys of fuel and ammunition — and the personnel to man all of the equipment — were being moved to the border, Russia was taking its second step.
He said that there are many steps needed before Russian troops can move onto Ukrainian soil. We might witness standoff tactics such as cyber warfare attacks and cruise missile launch launches, some unrest, and possibly even assassination, in Ukraine.
Cranny Evans speculated that long-range missile attacks that target key industrial and military infrastructures in Ukraine would be the first acts of war.
He said that it was all about showing people that, if they continue to do what they want, then we can target their values.” It’s not about Russian men murdering Ukrainian women and men, but about promoting the Ukrainian way to live.
Mathieu Boulegue is a Chatham House research fellow in Russia and Eurasia. He told reporters on Friday during the think tank’s press briefing that the Russians didn’t appear ready to invade.
He stated that “We now have one of the most concentrated forces in Europe since World War II, with a force which looks almost like an invasion force.”[But]There are still some missing elements when it comes to military logistics, so we need them.
He said that he believed Russia would go to great lengths in order to attain its political objectives.
“You don’t send close to 100,000 troops and as many people in reserves to prove a point — Russia has raised the stakes so high for me at this stage that it seems improbable it will just simply back down unless it gets something in return,” he said.
CNBC spoke to Cranny Evans, who said that the long-term outlook would be impacted if this trend continues.
He explained that Russian theories suggest they only would invade Ukraine if they are certain the Ukrainians have been defeated. According to theory, they can be beat before Russian tanks move over the border.
NATO members signal their support to Ukraine while troops continue to be assembled near the border with Russia.
Boris Johnson, the U.K. Prime Minster, warned Parliament that there would be no “recovery” in this country.many Russian mothers’ sons will not be coming home“If Russia invaded Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Liz Truss, Britain’s foreign secretary has stated that the U.K. would introduce legislation to permit it. hit Russian banks, oligarchs and energy companies with economic sanctions.
On Sunday, Bob Menendez, chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, told CNN the committee was devising the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia that would be “crippling to their economy” as a method of defending Ukraine.
German ministers have also saidRussia could face “massive” economic consequences for its aggressive actions against Ukraine.
Risking ‘real financial harm’
Cranny Evans said that Russia may suffer serious financial consequences if it is not subject to the appropriate sanctions and enforcement.
Even without sanctions, the entire operation is already likely to have been costly for Russia — and those costs will only continue to rise if its troops invade.
Henry Boyd of thinktank IISS was a research fellow in defense and military analysis and told CNBC by phone that large scale military operations come with high costs. “The base cost of the [current] deployment is not a free action, but it’s a relatively sustainable action — you’re not having to pay an awful lot more in terms of your budget to achieve what you’re trying to do.”
He said that the military action would have “knock-on” consequences domestically. A large portion of civil transportation was diverted to military facilities over the past few months.
He said, “You have also seen the effect that rumors about military action and possible economic sanctions had on the stock exchange.” “So, I feel you have already seen indirectly the significant economic costs of this action.”
The finance and resources used in some recent military campaigns — such as the Western-led air campaign in Libya — may “pale in comparison” to what Russia would need to expend in a significant ground invasion, according to Boyd.
However, there is a pessimistic viewpoint that Russia might be exposed to short-term economic risk, and it could still be considered worthwhile if they can maintain what, in their minds, is Russia’s essential political position in the near abroad.” he cautioned.
“If they need to go through war — whatever the scale and the size — to obtain their political strategic goals, they will do it,” Chatham House’s Boulegue agreed. They can’t avoid it. Because nobody in the Kremlin is in a right mind to want additional sanctions or be excluded more.
He said that war would prove costly and prolonged for Russia. Potential economic and sanctions costs may also have political consequences, which could lead to popular rebellions against Russia.
“They would sign.” [Putin’s]Death in a certain way,” he stated.
Andrew Wood, an associate fellow in Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program and former British ambassador, said that Putin was motivated by “a fear of popular rebellions,” such like those described above. seen recently in Belarus.
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