Putin’s strongman image is well-known in Russia. The Kremlin has the ability to dictate the narrative domestically when it concerns the president through the suppression of independent media and opposition figures.

According to analysts, Putin is free to move without risking his reputation, provided he does so.

Maximilian Hess, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC that, “yes, Putin has cultivated a strongman image, but he has sufficient control of the image and narrative-setting ability that means de-escalation will not be perceived as weakness by the majority of the Russian public.”

Hess pointed out that Putin cannot reverse his actions if NATO has more troops deployed to the east.

He said that Putin could still be rebuffed without significant domestic repercussions. However, the greater the West’s commitment to Eastern Europe it seems makes it more difficult.

“Major changes in sanctions could make the situation more complicated and more unfeasible for Putin, even though, as far as we know, they will only be a response against Russian actions (this argument is more complex with Nord Stream 2).

Hess also said they might be part of Russia’s elite and intellectual far-right that favor war against Ukraine. However, Putin’s system has a remarkable resilience to disagreements between the elite.

Unsurprisingly, Russia’s trust in the West is low after the annexation by Ukraine of Crimea in 2014. This was followed by support for pro-Russian separatists from the Donbas in east Russia, which further fueled distrust.

Many analysts believe that a smaller incursion in the Donbas region by Russia is possible — or even likely. The Russians could gain pro-Russian territory and save Ukraine face. Hess stated that an attempt to annex the Donbas was his base scenario.

Hess explained that Putin was able to respond to talks breakdowns or any other negative outcome in terms of policy (from the Kremlin’s point-of view), by taking limited action towards the Donbas, without triggering the West’s more drastic sanctions.

Russia is attempting to preserve its influence in former Soviet countries and stop the expansion of NATO’s military alliance to the east. Russia claims it does not intend to invade Ukraine, but wants to safeguard its security interests.

Putin called the Soviet Union’s fall one of the most devastating events of the 20th Century. Putin also extolled Russia’s unity, stressing their shared history, linguistic, and cultural ties.

This “closeness” between the countries might explain why the Russian people seem to have little interest in war.

“There was no societal demand for Putin to play as rough as he does to begin with … there was no demand for escalation at all — so any de-escalation would be welcomed by Russians,” Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Russian affairs journal Riddle, told CNBC on Monday.

It is evident that the media and the official rhetoric of Putin can render almost any settlement to the conflict a victory, therefore it wouldn’t challenge Putin’s position at home significantly, at most among the Russian people,” he stated.

Barbashin pointed out that the Russian public was not keen to support a war against Ukraine, especially if this could result in “Russian boys dying” during any conflict. This is despite the fact that it had a split between conservative Russian elites and military officials.

It would make no sense for the military or Russia’s conservative elites to retreat now, as none of their major goals has been met. “They expect Putin will continue to be firm, or up the ante,” said he.

Hess also agreed with the statement that there was less anti-Ukraine propaganda this time around, as opposed to 2014’s annexation Crimea.

Hess said that “I don’t think the Russian public are baiting for war” and noted that the Kremlin has not focused its propaganda on demonizing Ukrainians as much in 2014 (even though it is still very hostile towards the government in Kyiv).

The world remains to see how Putin will respond to U.S. responses to Russia’s demands. These requests were hand delivered to Moscow last week by U.S. Ambassador in Moscow. The exact U.S. response was not publicized, but Moscow responded with frosty silence.

However, the talks continue between both parties.Antony Blinken (U.S. State Secretary) will be speaking with Sergei Lavrov, his Russian counterpart on Tuesday. Meanwhile other Western leaders seek to persuade Putin this week to lower tensions. Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, stated Monday that he will tell Putin “step back” from the brink over Ukraine during their talks later in the week.

But not all believe Putin is willing to give up on Ukraine.

Eurasia Group director Ian Bremmer stated that Putin was prepping Russians for an invasion by demonizing Ukraine.

CNBC reported Monday that Putin controlled the narrative in Russia (especially with state media’s power), so selling isn’t really the question. But this also makes it easier for him to make the decision to escalate — he’s convinced Russians that war is coming and it’s all the fault of Ukraine and NATO.”

Bremmer claimed that Putin will lose credibility at the international stage if he backs off, especially among certain quarters such as those countries which are traditionally allies with Russia.

He stated that Putin should have options for escalatory actions beyond invading Ukraine. Bremmer said that these could include sending permanent military presence to Belarus and nukes to them, or even setting up bases in the Western Hemisphere (Cuba, Venezuela, as the deputy foreign minister suggested.”