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U.S. retail sales beat expectations in January; December figures revised lower -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO– Automobiles for sale in Carlsbad (California), U.S.A May 2, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File photo

WASHINGTON (Reuters] – The U.S. saw a sharp rebound in retail sales in January, aided by a strong purchase of motor vehicles. But higher prices could have a negative impact on economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Commerce Department reported Wednesday that retail sales jumped 3.8% in December. The Commerce Department revised December data to reflect sales falling 2.5% rather than 1.9%, as reported previously.

Reuters polled economists to forecast that retail sales would rise 2.0%. Estimates ranged from 0.7% up to 4.4%.

After the holidays, motor vehicle sales usually drop in January. Last month’s decrease was not as dramatic as it has been in previous years. This could be due to the global shortage of semiconductors.

This likely led to the seasonally factors model, which is used by government to correct seasonal fluctuations in data being generouser than previous years. This boost is expected to diminish in March according to economists.

Last month’s retail sales were also boosted by increased prices due to shortages in supply chains. The majority of retail sales is made up goods, and they aren’t adjusted for inflation.

In the retail sales report, restaurants and bars are not included.

Except for automobiles and gasoline, sales of retail products rose 4.8% in January. The December data was revised to reflect core retail sales declining 4.0%, instead of 3.1%.

Most closely related to core retail sales is the consumer spending part of gross domestic product.

Higher prices account for a portion of the sales increase, so inflation-adjusted core retail sales likely were lower, which may have slowed consumer spending’s growth rate at the beginning of the quarter.

In measuring consumer spending growth, the real core retail sales (or core) are important. Real consumer spending declined 1.0% in December.

Most economic growth rates for the first quarter were below 2%. 4.9% was the pace of economic growth in fourth quarter. In 2021, the economy experienced its strongest growth rate since 1984.

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