Geoffrey Smith 

If an activist investor believes, Amazon (NASDAQ) may be on the verge of a collapse. But that’s still quite a ways off in the future. In the interim, however, Walmart (NYSE:), has resolved its disagreement with Visa over interconnection fees. Walmart’s earnings (NYSE:), are due today, just a day after the solid January retail sales report and recent Fed minutes reinforced concerns about higher interest rates. Economic news of note is the data on housing starts and jobless claims. Russian-backed separatists are waging war in Ukraine’s eastern region, although oil is falling due to rising prices and signs of destruction by high U.S. oil prices.  This is what you should know about financial markets Thursday 17 February.

1. Amazon pushing for breakup

Amazon might be under pressure to break up. At least, that is what the activist investor said to clients during a conference call. He indicated that he believes there may be another shareholder in Amazon.

The opportunity comes from the fact that Amazon’s underlying businesses have radically different profitability profiles. Amazon’s Cloud hosting services, as well as advertising revenue made up nearly all its profits in the year. Amazon’s ecommerce business was, however, a loss due to increasing cost pressures in America and is still far from being profitable outside of the United States.

Amazon made news for its concerns about card fees overnight. Amazon customers can still use Visa cards in Britain, while other surcharges that were imposed last year in Australia or Singapore will no longer be applicable.

Amazon’s Big Tech Rivals Alphabet (NASDAQ) and Meta Platformss (NASDAQ) will also be on the news after Google stated it would. It is yet another blow to Facebook and other social media sites’ ability to target ads.

2. Employment claims, housing starts

At 8:30 AM ET the weekly labor market update will be available. Analysts are looking to maintain their current range of slightly over 200,000.  

The numbers come at the same time as January data for and , which are expected to ease off only slightly from December’s levels. Housing starts haven’t sustained the current level of activity since the subprime boom in 2006, but have so far resisted pressure from .

Another important point is The.

3. Walmart earnings expected to be lower than stock prices

U.S. stock markets are set to open lower after the publication of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting minutes offered a sharp reminder of the pressure on the central bank to .

At 6:15 AM ET they were down 174 points or 0.5% while they were down by an identical amount, and were down 0.7%

The day’s big corporate news will be , due for early release, which come a day after official retail sales data for January showed a sharp rebound in spending. The outlook for consumption from the U.S.’s biggest brick-and-mortar retailer will offer a perspective that official data – struggling with distortions to the usual seasonal adjustment process – may not capture.

Also in focus will be Nvidia (NASDAQ:), which is marked down in premarket after issuing guidance that wasn’t as explosively optimistic as many expected, and DoorDash (NYSE:), whose record revenue in the last quarter defied fears that the reopening of physical restaurants would hit its business.

4. Ukraine tensions remain high as separatists fire at the border

Tensions at the Ukrainian border are continuing to rise as NATO and Kyiv reiterate that Russia has not withheld any significant troops from their advanced positions, which could provide a platform for an invasion.

Local media reports that Russian-backed separatists from eastern Ukraine used artillery to attack targets within the government-held village Stanytsia Luhanska. The government refused fire back in fear of creating an escalation that could lead to a Russian invasion.

European natural gas futures rose up to 8% in the early trades, but were up around 5% by noon. In the meantime, the slipped around 1% against USD.

5. U.S. stock rises, Crude falls further

The price of crude oil fell to $91/barrel due to signs of slowing U.S. demand. These factors are also making it difficult for the U.S. to make further gains at these high levels.

The Energy Information Administration had said on Wednesday that stocks had risen by 1.1 million barrels last week, in contrast to the American Petroleum Institute’s assessment of a modest decline. The inventories of gasoline, however, were tighter and fell by 1.3 million bars.

At 6:25 AM ET futures had fallen 2.4% to $91.42/barrel, and 2.1% to $92.77/barrel