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Covid infections plummet 90% from U.S. pandemic high, states lift mask mandates

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A patient receives a Covid-19 swab testing at a mobile clinic in Saint Paul MB Church, Cleveland, Mississippi on Saturday, January 8, 2022.

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Officials in the United States are hopeful, but cautiously optimistic that the country is now moving on from the unprecedented outbreak of infection by the Omicron Covid variant. New cases have fallen 90% since the pandemic record was set five weeks ago.

U.S. leaders and states are working together to overcome the mental trauma caused by the omicron waves that hit the United States two years ago. As a manageable but persistent risk, public health officials have started to develop plans for dealing with the virus.

Johns Hopkins University has found that the U.S. now reports an average 84,000 daily case, down from the pandemic peak of over 800,000 cases per day in Jan. 15. The decline in cases is spreading across the country, with the average number of daily cases falling by 40% over the last two weeks according to CNBC’s analysis of Hopkins data.

Also, hospitalizations are down sharply. The number of patients with Covid in U.S. hospital systems as of Monday was approximately 66,000, according to the seven-day average of data provided by the Department of Health and Human Services. That’s down from 159,000 patients at the peak on Jan. 20, 2015.

While the Covid death toll is high, but it’s showing some signs of declining, it typically follows a increase in cases by several weeks. The average daily death rate reached nearly 2600 per day on February 1, which was the highest in over a year. Since then, it has fallen to below 2000.

“While we are not there yet, we are encouraged by the dramatic decreases in hospitalizations and cases across the country,” Jeff Zients (White House Covid Response Coordinator), stated to the public at a briefing last week.

This omicron variant caused an unprecedented surge in infections. It pushed cases from 100,000 per day right after Thanksgiving to 802,000 at mid-January. The numbers then dropped rapidly. Jennifer Nuzzo (Johns Hopkins epidemiologist) said, “It was very fast, furious like a flash flood.”

The U.S. has made progress in the right direction. However, Nuzzo warned that BA.2, an omicron subvariant BA.2, could hinder recovery. BA.2 has a higher transmissibility than the original Omicron strain. However, it is currently being circulated at a low level here in the U.S.

Nuzzo expressed doubt that BA.2 would cause the spike we observed in the winter, adding that there is likely to be some immunity among the people who have been affected by the omicron wave. She said that it was possible for BA.2 to slow down the pace of decline.

Although infections are an important warning sign, deaths and hospitalizations are what will determine how the U.S. responds to Covid, Nuzzo stated. Omicron is not as dangerous as the Delta variant and so it doesn’t necessarily give an accurate picture of the extent to which the pandemic has affected society.

Nuzzo stated that the U.S. can now focus on those still at risk despite having been vaccinated and protect them, including people with compromised immune systems.

Nuzzo stated that “we’re now in a completely different place than in 2020.” We have vaccines. The virus is less deadly per-case, but that depends on the immunity level in the population. We now have more options to focus our resources.

California last week launched a first in the nation plan to deal with the virus and move beyond the initial crisis stage of the pandemic. Gov. Gavin Newsom stated that California must learn how to deal with the virus and use the tools created over the last two years in order to be prepared for an uncertain future.

“We have all come to understand what was not understood at the beginning of this crisis — that there is no end date, that there is not a moment where we declare victory,” Newsom said during a press conference Thursday.

California’s plan uses wastewater surveillance to identify rising viral transmission early. If the state health department receives a signal they will use genetic sequencing for confirmation that a new variant of the virus is present. The state would move within 45 days to assess whether current treatments, vaccines and testing are still applicable against this strain. In addition, testing would be increased and staff for health care in areas affected by the rising incidence of infections.

People are keen to get rid of public health precautions as the omicron waves recede. California and New York have let their universal mask mandates in indoor public spaces expire, while their school mask requirements will remain in effect for the time being. New Jersey has lifted its school mask mandate for March.

“This is not a declaration of victory as much as an acknowledgment that we can responsibly live with this thing,” New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat said this earlier in the month.

Nuzzo stated that lifting mandates for masks when the omicron level drops in countries with high vaccination rates makes sense. She said that wearing a mask is still an option in dense indoor environments.

We aren’t saying that you shouldn’t wear masks. Nuzzo explained that Starbucks is not making it mandatory to shout at someone in Starbucks or call the police when they see someone wearing masks in their store.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention might soon revise its guidance on masks. The CDC suggests that all people, no matter their vaccination status, use masks indoors to reduce the risk of viral transmission. According to CDC data, omicron has been declining, but nearly all U.S. counties still have high levels of transmission.

Rochelle Walensky, Director at CDC said last week that hospital admissions will now be the primary focus of the agency’s guidance about how to combat the virus.

Walensky said Wednesday during the White House Covid update that “hospital capacity must be considered as an additional important barometer.” When these metrics improve, we want people to take a break from mask-wearing and have the flexibility to return to those things if they get worse.

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