Why is there conflict in east Ukraine and what is Putin’s endgame?
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An unidentified Ukrainian soldier poses with his tattoo showing Ukraine’s coat-of-arms. He is standing at the fronline with Russia supported separatists near Donetsk on April 22, 2021.
AFP | AFP | Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again center-stage after ordering troops into two pro-Russian, breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine and recognizing them as independent states.
Western analysts and officials refute Putin’s assertion that Russian troops in the region will serve as peacekeepers.
For a long time, political analysts predicted that Russia would pull this move. Conflict in Donbas between separatists backed by Russia and Ukrainian troops is not a new phenomenon.
CNBC offers a comprehensive guide on what is happening in Eastern Ukraine, and why it matters.
What is the reason for eastern Ukraine’s reunification?
While the possibility of an eastern Ukraine military conflict is a concern, it has been known for some time that the region was the scene of a proxy war between Russia and Ukraine.
Soon after Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, pro-Russian separatists proclaimed two republics in the eastern part of the country: the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic much to the Ukrainian government’s consternation.
There have been ongoing fighting and skirmishes in this region since then between separatists and troops of Ukraine.
France and Germany tried to broker peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and France. They are commonly known as the Minsk agreements. Although fighting in Donbass has been interrupted by cease-fires for a time, Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of violating their agreements. Fighting has resumed.
In the Donbas, the armed conflict, also known as war, has already caused a significant human tragedy. 13,000-14,000 people are believed to have been killed. It is difficult to estimate the exact death toll due to the conflict’s civil war-like nature.
On Tuesday, Putin told reporters that the “the Minsk agreements were dead long before yesterday’s [Monday’s] recognition of the people’s republics” and again blamed Kyiv for their failure.
Russia: What are they doing?
Russia denies supporting separatists within Ukraine, but it is accused of providing military hardware and other support to the rebels to weaken Ukraine’s government, sovereignty, and political stability.
Western officials were concerned that Putin was planning to invade more areas of Ukraine and install a proRussian regime in Kyiv after the invasion and annexed of Crimea.
Russia denies any plans to invade, but recent Russian troop movements along Ukraine’s border and additional soldiers stationed with Belarusian allies for military drills have only increased fears of an imminent Russian invasion.
Russia recognized eastern Ukraine’s self-proclaimed republics on Monday. This is an official endorsement of Moscow’s support. But Russia already tried to “Russify”. the region by offering Russian passports and citizenship to residents there.
According to political analysts, the 2019 move was a sign of an intrusion. Russia could choose to invade Ukraine to protect its citizens. Russian state media have focused their attention on Donbas residents who fled the area in recent days. They claim this is due to Ukrainian military shelling.
Rostov, Russia: Civilians have arrived in Rostov after Russia recognizes the Donetsk as an independent country.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Signaling Russia is pursuing such a strategy, Putin justified ordering troops into eastern Ukraine on Tuesday by saying Russia’s recognition of the “republics” was “dictated precisely by the fact that the Ukrainian leadership had publicly declared that they were not going to abide by these [Minsk] agreements.”
“What more is there to wait for?” He replied. When asked if Russia recognizes only borders of self-proclaimed republics or the entire territory, he replied that Russia does not. Putin signaled it was the latter:
“With regard to the borders within which we will recognize these republics, we did recognize them, which means we recognized their foundational documents, including the Constitution, and the Constitution stipulates their borders within the Donetsk and Luhansk regions at the time when they were part of Ukraine.”
Putin wants what?
In essence, the war over Ukraine is about power and influence. The government of Ukraine, currently headed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, is now orienting toward the West, with a desire to be part of NATO and the EU, and move out from the post-Soviet Russia.
Putin, meanwhile, has decried the dissolution of the Soviet Union as a catastrophe and over his 22-year rule in Russia he has sought to rebuild Russia’s power base and sphere of influence over former Soviet states, like Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine — something of the jewel in the crown in the USSR, and a natural buffer state against Europe.
Putin often extolled Russia’s historical unity and Ukraine, and he did it again Monday when he sent troops to the Donbas.
Moscow is aggrieved by Ukraine’s tendency toward the West. Despite the fact that Ukraine has no immediate prospect of becoming a member, NATO or the EU will not expand eastwards to include Ukraine.
Russia asked for legal assurances from Ukraine that it would not be accepted into NATO. However, these requests were denied. According to analysts, Putin was aware that the demands would not be accepted but was able to then say Russia’s security concerns were ignored. This information was sold to Russia via the media which are mostly pro-Putin, as they either have links with the government or state control.
Therefore, it is not surprising that Russian state media have been so influential repeatedly blamed Ukraine and the West for aggravating tensions in the Donbas region, accusing both of spreading misinformation, and to ignore Russia’s security needs.
Russia’s recent actions are drawing international condemnation. The U.S. and EU have announced new sanctions against Russia. However, the sanctions already apply to Russia for the annexation of Crimea, election interference by the U.S. and cyberattacks.
Are you ready for all-out war?
Putin’s close observers believe Russia is expecting more sanctions and has a larger plan for Ukraine.
Timothy Ash (BlueBay Asset Management senior emerging markets strategist) said Tuesday that Putin was being sanctioned because he admitted what all of us knew: that he has troops deployed in DPR/LPR and is in de facto the control.
I don’t understand what Putin receives from recognising LPR/DPR. He is responsible for the support of 3.5 million people who are generally very poor. The sanctions effect is his. As a way to stop the West’s move, he pulls out from Minsk 2. Internationally, he’s seen as an evil guy who takes territory away from other countries.
Ash stated that this “only makes sense if it is the beginning of something larger and that this is just trying to provoke Ukraine and the West into an illogical counterreaction. What I believe is actually going on here is that he’s building the case against all-out war with Ukraine together with the Russian populace.”
Mario Bikarski, Russia analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit, commented that Russia’s recent actions were “designed to apply maximum pressure on Ukraine, get the attention of the West, open the door to talks and try to force a settlement preventing Ukraine from joining NATO.”
He said that Moscow would still be willing to wait and see if the military alliance can reach a compromise.
In an email note Tuesday, he stated that Russia had acknowledged the independence of LPR and DPR. This showed the West it was serious in preventing Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO. Russia considers this an existential threat.
Russia’s recent moves were derived from the Crimea earlier playbook. They also follow a pattern that has been used in other conflicts including Georgia. What is the key question? Is Russia stopping here or will it escalate?
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