Robin Emmott. Sabine Siebold. Tom Balmforth

BRUSSELS/MOSCOW – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears designed to seize Kyiv, create a corridor of land south to the Black Sea and split the country, according to military analysts, former officials and other experts, echoing Ukraine’s generals.

They said that President Vladimir Putin could still want some control over all of Ukraine, in his efforts to prevent Ukraine joining NATO. Also, his victory is far from certain. According to a top U.S. defense official, Russia is facing greater resistance than they expected. This was evident in Russia’s advance on Kyiv.

These tactics point to an “flanking movement”, a move by Russian troops that is advancing from Ukraine’s weakest spots – at its border with Belarus in its north and south, as well as its vast naval base, which Russian annexed in South Crimea eight years ago.

Experts say such a strategy could be used to allow Moscow to directly control the eastern Ukraine and its seaboard. It would also reduce western Ukraine to a vassal country, which in turn, will lower long-term financial costs.

Konrad Muzyka from the Rochan consulting firm in Poland said, “I think they now (the Russians), are aiming to create a landing bridge all the route to Moldova.”

Russian forces and tanks began to invade the Donetsk, eastern Kharkiv, regions and Tavriya region on Thursday. According to military reports, missile strikes from Belarus and bombing by Belarus also began to advance toward Kyiv from north.

The broadcast from Ukraine’s defence ministry, posted on Facebook (NASDAQ 🙂 Thursday morning, stated that so far, the Kremlin has created a corridor of land to the Crimean peninsula, and Transnistria.

Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and supported rebels who established separatist administrations there in Donetsk (Russian-speaking Donbass) region in eastern Ukraine.

Transnistria is a Russian-speaking separatist province in Moldova.

Joerg Forbrig of the German Marshall Fund Berlin said that Russian troops might “try to take control of a large portion of Ukraine which will include the territories that would create a land corridor between their three territories already.”

“UKRAINIANS WOULD RESPIST”

Putin has been prevented by Ukraine’s military from carrying out a swift advance against Kyiv. Jamie Shea, an ex-NATO official and now a member of Friends of Europe, stated that “as long as they don’t control the airspace, it won’t really be possible to make their armoured thrust in Ukraine count.”

Russian missiles bombarded Kyiv last Friday. Moscow claims to have taken the Hostomel airport northwest of Kiev, which could be used as a staging area for an attack on Kyiv.

According to U.S. officials, Russia has the initial goal of overthrowing Ukraine’s pro–Western President Volodymyr Zeleskiy.

“Putin doesn’t want Donbass or Donetsk – he wants all of Ukraine, but he does not have to occupy the entire country to reach that goal. Hans-Lothar Domroese said that Putin will try to destroy the Ukrainian government.

Experts in defense pointed out the enormous expense Russia incurred for a military operation in Ukraine. This former Soviet country of 44 million was slightly less than Texas.

“The Soviet Union was willing to participate in communist regimes because they spent so much money on its soldiers in Eastern Europe. According to Elisabeth Braw, a think tank at American Enterprise Institute in Washington, Ukrainians will resist any Russian government.

Even though Putin doesn’t tolerate any dissent, it is not clear how long-term war with so many Russian casualties at home would be seen. More than 1,800 protesters against war were arrested by Russian police on Thursday.

Putin might seek an agreement for the western Ukraine. The majority of Ukrainians speak Ukrainian, not Russian. It is an arrangement similar to one Moscow has with Belarus. Russia has long helped Alexander Lukashenko suppress opposition.

Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University München, Professor for International Politics, stated that Russia has not yet tried sending troops in large numbers to west Ukraine.

He stated that the Russian military building-up of 160,000 to 200,000 soldiers was not sufficient for Ukraine’s occupation for any length of time.

“I believe that Putin is pursuing the main goal of seizing Donbass,… and opening a land route to Crimea. This would allow these territories to be separated from Ukraine. It also allows for the establishment of a calm government in Kyiv.”