Russian’s Ukraine invasion sparks watershed moment in EU
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On February 27, 2022, people arrive by train in Ukraine from the main station of Przemysl (Poland).
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Russian’s invasion of UkraineA watershed moment has occurred in European politics with prominent politicians dismantling decades-old policy ideas in a matter of days.
Frederick Kempe (president of the Atlantic Council foreign policy think-tank) said on Monday that there was a “tectonic shift” in Europe’s attitude to Russia during this weekend’s broadcast.
The weekend will be Germany said it would send lethal weapons to UkraineWhile increasing its military spending to over 2% of its GDP, Because of its participation in World War II it had always refused to provide deadly weapons for any conflict zone. The government also made very small investments to improve its defense capabilities. It has been completely rewritten.
Two countries that were more open to refugees from Syria than the EU, Hungary and Poland, are now the main areas of reception for Ukrainians fleeing violence.
And the EU, the 27 member bloc often criticized for its slow processes and lack of consensus, has not only swiftly approved severe sanctions unanimously; but has also said it would finance — for the first time in its history — the purchase and delivery of weapons to a country in conflict.
“The EU’s developments this weekend were quite remarkable. A long-standing EU official spoke Monday to CNBC, saying that he was in Berlin and Brussels.
This official also stated: “Many had hoped to witness this strength of purpose face to such an outrage but few thought it would come so fast.”
Future policy implications
CNBC spoke with Luis Garicano of Renew Europe’s European Parliament, who said that both the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the “heroic” position of Ukraine contributed to the significant shifts in European politics this weekend.
It changes everything” he stated about future EU policymaking. He also said that the War in Ukraine was a clear indication that Europe needs an effective and united foreign policy.
Garicano said that countries from the northern and eastern European regions have been traditionally “the most skeptical of a united EU foreign policy.” However, he also noted that conflict remains a concern for both.
Northern countries are notably Finland and Sweden, have also been subjected to thinly-veiled threats from Russia regarding any ascension to NATO.
Poland, Hungary and Baltic countries (including Estonia and Lithuania) are worried that Russia’s conflict could also impact their nations.
Fair to say, the EU has met the challenge. This bodes well to strategic autonomy ambitions.
Emre Peker
director at consultancy Eurasia Group
This renewed political context could bolster Europe’s strategic autonomy — a concept that pushes the bloc to develop its own defense capabilities and which President Emmanuel MacronFrance is a long-standing advocate for this cause.
Emre Peker from consultancy Eurasia Group said that “it is fair to state that the EU has met the challenge,” which bodes well to strategic autonomy ambitions,” Emre told CNBC by phone.
He stated that “I don’t think an EU army” but said that Russia’s attack on Ukraine was “now moving.” [this]We look forward to the discussion.”
French Election
This political climate could be a boon for Macron when he seeks reelection within a matter of months.
Mujtaba Rahman (Managing Director at Eurasia Group) stated in a last week note that “War in Ukraine would have a strong impact on the French presidential election, making President Emmanuel Macron’s re-election even more probable.”
Macron will likely announce that he is running for the second mandate of France’s president in the next few days.
To avoid an invasion, the 44-year-old has attempted to act as Europe’s primary mediator between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Europe. While some criticize him for not being fresh enough when approaching Putin’s Kremlin from the start, his effort to keep up with his close ties with Russia may increase his chances.
“Despite the failure of his attempts to broker a diplomatic solution; the four candidates and parties closest to Macron in the polls—especially the rival far-right candidates—have an embarrassing history of admiration for the Russian President, Vladimir Putin,” Rahman added.
Ukraine joining the EU
The EU become a club of 27 nations after the United Kingdom departed in January of 2020, and the last time that a country joined the group was in 2013 — Croatia.
The EU’s growth was stopped by the 2008 financial crisis, and then the sovereign debt crisis that followed.
However, Poland, Slovenia and Lithuania have said that the process for Ukraine to join the EU should be sped up by granting it candidacy status — an official recognition that a country wants to join the EU and is doing the necessary reforms to become one.
According to Reuters Monday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zeleskyy asked for an immediate accession by the EU under a special procedure. CNBC reached out to the European Commission on Monday for clarification.
A second EU official spoke out, but did not wish to name him due to sensitive subject matter. He said “these are very complex and long procedures so it won’t help Zelenskyy instantly.”
A second official stated that EU leaders would be able to discuss this issue at their next meeting, which will take place in March.
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