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Pfizer, Moderna project $51 billion in combined vaccine sales this year

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Illustration of vaccine labels that contain Pfizer BioNTech and Moderna Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). This picture was taken on March 19, 2021.

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

PfizerAnd ModernaEven though there is a significant drop in the number of omicron waves in some parts of the world, both companies expect to sell $51billion in vaccines combined in the next year. They also think the pandemic has entered an endemic phase and will not be as disruptive to the society.

Pfizer expects $32 billionIn 2022 sales of Covid vaccine, Moderna was forecasting at least $19 billionSales, These statements were made by the companies in last month’s fourth-quarter earnings reports.

These are the minimum sales. They reflect contracts signed by countries around the globe in anticipation of their year’s need. They could rise depending on how the virus develops. Pfizer has increased its 2022 Covid sales guidance to $1 billion, compared with its third-quarter forecast. Moderna raised its guidance to $2 billion.

These 2022 goals were achieved after the company booked record-breaking revenues for the Covid vaccine rollout’s first year. Pfizer generated $36.7 billion from the sale of Covid vaccine in 2021. That is 45% of its annual revenue of $81.2billion. Moderna’s vaccine, which is the only product that it makes commercially, was $17.7 Billion in 2021 sales. This represents nearly all of Pfizer’s $18.5 billion annual revenue.

Take Profitable Shots

Strong profits are being made by vaccine manufacturers for their shot. Moderna saw a rise to profitability following the vaccination rollout. The company reported $12.2 billion net income in 2021, after reporting a net loss in 2020 of $747 millions. Frank D’Amelio (Chief Financial Officer) said Pfizer’s 20% profit margin in 2021 was very high. It is forecast to increase slightly in 2022. Pfizer divides the vaccine’s profit equally between its partners BioNTech.

Pfizer’s vaccine, ComirnatyModerna’s and?, SpikevaxBoth vaccines have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration. After rapid development that began in spring 2018, the vaccines were approved for emergency use in December 2020.

Pfizer continues to be the predominant vaccine provider in both the U.S.A and European Union. Pfizer accounted for nearly 58% of all Covid shot administered in the U.S., while Moderna accounted for 37%. according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the E.U. 71% were Pfizer doses and 17% were Moderna. according to Our World in Data.

Moderna and Pfizer expect that the pandemic will shift to an endemic stage, where it is less destructive to society. Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said that Moderna should have a good year. However, future demand for the drug is uncertain as the worldwide omicron epidemic continues to decline.

Yee said that “the market continues to debate how the final trajectory of the demand to boost during 2022 and 2023 will be.” Yee spoke with CNBC. We are moving closer to a pandemic, but we also feel like we’re getting out of an epidemic.

Moderna’s Endemic Plans

Jefferies holds a Hold rating for Moderna stock and has set a $170 price target. Moderna shares are down 42% so far in the year. The stock was at $148 Thursday.

Paul Burton, Moderna’s Chief Medical Officer, told analysts at the earnings call that there is a shift in the Northern Hemisphere where hospitalizations, new infections and death rates are less common. Moderna’s major markets are the United States of America and Europe.

Burton stated that Covid would likely exhibit a similar seasonal pattern to other respiratory viruses like the flu. While the majority of people will not become seriously ill, some vulnerable individuals may still be affected. Stephane Bancel, CEO of the company, stated that people over 50 years old and individuals with certain health issues will need to be vaccinated against Covid. He said that key markets have already begun to prepare for the annual boosters.

Bancel explained to analysts that “some countries such as the U.K. wanted to secure supply, because they believe very strongly that the endemic marketplace will need annual boosters,” during Bancel’s earnings call.

Bancel pointed out that Moderna’s projected $19 billion in sales for this year is missing any orders from America. The U.S. received its last shipment back in April, and it has not yet signed a contract to supply the fall. Moderna is also able to order vaccines for $3 billion beyond the existing agreements.

Bancel indicated that he believes that governments will exercise a large portion of the options, regardless of whether there is a new model. That could make Bancel’s guidance for 2022 to at least $22 Billion, excluding any U.S.-orders.

Moderna vaccine is not available to children in the United States. FDA is reviewing Moderna’s vaccine for teens aged 12-17 years old. The FDA is currently reviewing the application that Moderna has filed to authorise its vaccine for children aged 6-11 years old. This will be done after clearance for the shot for teens. Moderna anticipates that data will be available on the vaccine to children aged 5 and below this month.

Market analysts are still debating future vaccine demand. However, they do not believe that the world is moving towards an endemic period. Cowen Investment Bank believes the endemic seasonal phase might not appear for two more years. If this is the case,Cowen predicts that Moderna’s Covid vaccine, which is currently in use by Moderna, will see a stronger demand than most people expect. According to an analyst note, boosters that target Covid varieties will be critical moving forward.

Tyler Van Buren, Cowen analyst wrote that “Omicron makes clear that we aren’t yet in an endemic seasonal phase” in a note last week following Moderna’s earnings. Cowen gives Moderna a Market Perform rating of 200 with a Price Target of $200.

Moderna revealed last week it has developed a booster against omicron, as well other known variants. Burton, Moderna’s chief medical officer said that the booster would play an important role in the future because it will provide protection for people against both omicron and the dominant delta variant which is still being circulated around the globe..

Moderna’s ultimate goal is to develop an annual booster that covers three major respiratory viruses — flu, respiratory syncytial virus and of course Covid. Moderna’s flu vaccine candidate could be in phase 3 trials. The RSV vaccine is already in phase 3. According to Jefferies analysts Yee, Moderna must present strong and clear data to show a path to market for other vaccines it is developing.

Yee stated, “It is obviously crucial because the Covid component is becoming less important as we shift into an endemic period. Revenues will likely be declining.”

Pfizer Covid treatment is the focus of all eyes

Analysts are shifting their focus from Pfizer’s Covid pill, Paxlovid as the main source of revenue for 2022, according to Pfizer. Pfizer’s CEO Albert Bourla claimed that, along with its vaccine, the antiviral pill will help equip nations to manage the virus better and transition into an epidemic phase.

Paxlovid is expected to be sold by Pfizer at $22 billion in 2012. In clinical trials, 89% of patients who were at highest risk for severe Covid died. The treatment with an HIV drug was administered orally. The FDA approved it in emergency December.

Bourla claimed that Paxlovid 2022 sales could be much more than was indicated in the guidance. The guidance included only deals currently signed and those nearing finalization. Angela Hwang is Pfizer’s chief biopharmaceuticals officer. She stated that Pfizer has been in discussions with more than 100 countries about Paxlovid. According to Pfizer CFO D’Amelio, the oral antiviral treatment is more profitable than vaccine.

David Toung, an Argus analyst, wrote last month that Paxlovid also has a larger gross margin than Comirnaty. Therefore any sales increase of Paxlovid is more favorable to earnings. Argus upgraded its price target for Pfizer to $65, and gave it a buy rating. Pfizer has fallen by around 18% over the past year. Pfizer stock trades at around $48 per share as of Thursday.

Cowen analyst Steve Scala stated during Pfizer’s earnings call that the guidance provided by Pfizer regarding Paxlovid was prudent. Scala stated that Pfizer had only scratched the surface of its potential 2022 prospects.

Pfizer has also been working on a vaccine against omicron. Bourla said that the shot will be ready by the end of this month. He has however noted in the past, that it was not yet clear when or how the omicron vaccine would actually be used. Bourla also indicated in the past that another shot might be necessary, though it is important to await data from studies.

Pfizer is still waiting to authorize its vaccine for infants under 5 years old. Pfizer is also awaiting authorization. The FDA wanted to approve two doses immediately, but Pfizer decided not to proceed with those plans because data revealed that the vaccine’s effectiveness in young children was significantly less..Pfizer is expected to release data about the third dose in April.

The U.S. has approved Pfizer’s vaccine for children aged 5 years and over. It is fully approved by those age 16 and above. Moderna’s vaccine has been approved by the FDA for use in adults over 18 years old.

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