Baltic states in Europe fear Putin has them in his sights
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On February 17, 2022, soldiers from the German Armed Forces Bundeswehr arrived in an armored vehicle at NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group Battalion Lithuania in Rukla (Lithuania)
Petras Malukas | Afp | Getty Images
Tensions in Europe’s ex Soviet Baltic nations are increasing. Vladimir Putin could not resist the temptation to invade Ukraine and may have his sights on them.
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — the Baltic countries located in north-eastern Europe — are now members of the EU and NATO. However, in June 1940 they were invaded and occupied by the Soviet Union and after World War II were a part of the USSR until its collapse in 1991 when they regained their independence.
Today it is believed that one million Russian ethnics live in the Baltics. This is worrying for the region as Putin used the Baltics to justify his invasion of Ukraine. “protecting” of ethnic Russians the country’s east — a justification widely questioned and dismissed by many experts on the region.
Analysts see Putin’s incursion in Ukraine as an effort to rebuild Russia’s Soviet Empire, which Putin had once called “the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th Century.”
Russia also attempted to include former Soviet republics in its influence sphere, such as Georgia and Belarus to its north, and Moldova to the south. However, these efforts were met with mixed success. Over the years there have been many anti-government demonstrations in these countries, including in Ukraine during its pro-democracy revolutions of 2004 and 2013.
There are fears in the Baltic States that Russia could launch an attack on their territory after it has invaded a former Soviet territory.
Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice President of the European Commission, warned Monday that Russia’s threat must be taken seriously.
It’s going to continue in Ukraine if we don’t support Ukraine. It is clear that Putin is in an aggressive war mood, and this will likely continue in other nations. he said in an interview with Politico published Monday evening.
U.S. Secretary Antony Blinken, in an apparent attempt to calm the region, began a two-day Baltic tour on Monday. The visit included visits to Lithuania and Latvia Monday through Tuesday, as well as Estonia and Estonia Tuesday.
Gitanas Nauseda, President of Lithuania, appeared to push Blinken towards more NATO-wide action when speaking at a joint press conferenceHe stated that deterrence was no longer sufficient and needed more defense. Putin won’t stop fighting in Ukraine. He will never stop.
Gabrielius Landsbergis, the foreign minister of Ukraine, stated that the West has a “collective obligation and duty” to assist Ukraine. He added: “If we want to prevent the third world war. We have the power to choose.
Blinken responded by insisting that “the United States, with all allies and partners, will defend every – every inch of NATO territory should it come under attack, and there should be no doubt about that on anyone’s mind.”
He stressed, however that NATO does not have an aggressive intention and won’t seek conflict.
The Second Cold War
Edgars Rinkevics (Lettonia’s Foreign Minister) said that Blinken had given him comfort. He was happy to receive pledges of support in practical terms, including additional U.S. troop deployments and discussion on strengthening the defenses.
He stated that “Squawk Box Europe” is the most important fact. “I am very grateful for the U.S.’s support.”
In a press conference Monday, Rinkevics said that public opinion and policymakers’ decision-making had shifted with regards to military deployments, noting that now “we need a permanent stationing of NATO troops, including U.S. troops, on our soil” — something he had called for before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Biden directed the addition of 7,000 U.S. soldiers to Europe on the 24th February, the same day Russia invaded Ukraine. He also moved NATO’s eastern flank forces, including those to Latvia, to NATO.
Rinkevics responded that Russia can use Russia’s protection of ethnic Russians in an excuse for future invasions. He said that there is a huge difference between Ukraine and Baltics because they belong to NATO and the EU.
He stated that “if you take a look at the composition in Latvia, you will see there aren’t any such territories which are heavily Russian-populated.” Although there’s a Russian minority in some areas, there has been a significant shift in Russian-speaking populations as of now.
Rinkevics expressed concern that there would be a second Cold War. He said there was a growing schism among the West and Russia as well, which could lead to a conflict between countries outside its influence. The Iron Curtain is falling and Russia is disconnecting from the West. “I think that we are in an extremely long position here.
‘Aggressive war mood’
Even though they have been an integral part of NATO and EU since 2004, the Baltic States use the euro for their currency. Their geographical position makes them vulnerable. All three share a border, like Ukraine. Latvia and Lithuania both share a border to Russia’s ally Belarus. It is widely believed that Belarus was supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Krista Viksnins (program assistant for the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program, Center for European Policy Analysis), wrote last week in an editorial that there was good cause to worry about the Baltics.
“All three [Baltic countries] have successfully reintegrated into Europe. Yet they are now at risk and must be among the West’s top priorities — Russia has demonstrated its desire to make Ukraine a vassal state through full-scale military action and may not stop its bloody campaigns,” Viksnins wrote.
Just as Vladimir Putin made bloody threats against Ukraine prior to his unprovoked attack, so too has he threatened the Baltic States.”
This is an issue that Dombrovskis, the European Commission’s Dombrovskis also brought up in Monday’s interview.
“If you look at escalating Russia’s aggressive rhetoric and even statements claiming Russia supporting Belarusian interests in having access to Baltic Sea, and the increasing anti-Baltic rhetoric — well in Ukraine, it also started with increasing anti-Ukrainian rhetoric,” he added.
Officials from the West all agreed that Ukraine needs to be supported in their war against Russia.
According to Rinkevics, Latvia’s foreign minister said that the West must support Ukraine “anyway we can”. Meanwhile, Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuanian foreign minister, told CNBC Monday that any country with means should provide what they can.
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