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UK year-ahead inflation expectations rise to highest since 2008 -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: Shoppers shop in a London supermarket December 24, 2021. REUTERS/Kevin Coombs

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LONDON, (Reuters) – The expectation of the British public for inflation over the next year rose to its highest level since 2008. However, the Bank of England’s quarterly survey on Friday showed that longer-term expectations have been rising less.

Inflation expectations for 12 months increased to 4.3% from 3.2% November’s survey. It was the highest point since August 2008. The highest expectations for inflation in two and five years were 3.2% and 3.3%, respectively.

BoE policymakers carefully monitor inflation expectations, as they consider them a means by which temporarily high inflation may become persistent through its impact on company pricing plans and employees’ wages demands. This happens even though the original drivers for higher prices have faded.

However, a single question in the February survey revealed that employees expected their earnings to go up by only 2.1% over 12 months. That’s far lower than inflation.

British consumer inflation reached 5.5% in January, its highest level in 30 years. This was due to increased energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks after the pandemic.

Numerous economists believe it will exceed 8% by this year, and could reach its highest level since 1980s. It is likely to rise further due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Others measures of inflation expectations also have risen.

Citi and YouGov conducted a monthly survey to gauge public expectations about inflation. The results were 4.1% in Citi’s latest month’s survey. This is the largest increase since 2005. Financial markets have priced in the greatest inflation for more than 10 years.

It was conducted in two waves, with approximately 2,200 participants between Feb. 4-7 and 22-21. The survey was carried out by Ipsos polling company, who has taken over Kantar’s role as survey provider.

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